Oscar Predictions: Best Actor – Brendan Fraser Is the Comeback Kid of Awards Season in ‘The Whale’
Clayton Davis
7 min read
2023 Oscars best actor predictions include Brendan Fraser, Hugh Jackman, Austin Butler, Colin Farrell and Tom Cruise.
Oscar Predictions: Best Actor – Brendan Fraser Is the Comeback Kid of Awards Season in ‘The Whale’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 15, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Brendan Fraser continues to be the comeback story of the year after big debuts out of Venice and Toronto for his work in Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale.” But it won’t be easy for the 53-year-old actor. A competitive race is underway that will include one-time nominee Hugh Jackman in Florian Zeller’s “The Son” and Volpi Cup winner Colin Farrell for one of his best turns yet in Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas. | |||
| 2 | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption. | |||
| 3 | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 4 | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s. | |||
| 5 | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros |
| Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. | |||
| 7 | Jeremy Pope | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton. | |||
| 8 | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies. | |||
| 9 | Adam Driver | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| “White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. | |||
| 10 | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| 12 | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| 13 | Gabrielle LaPelle | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| 14 | Micheal Ward | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 15 | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| 16 | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| 17 | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| 18 | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| 19 | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| 20 | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | Timothée Chalamet | “Bones and All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| 22 | Daniel Craig* | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| 23 | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| 24 | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| 25 | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| 26 | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| 27 | Harry Styles* | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| 28 | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| 29 | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 30 | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| Other Awards Possibilities | |||
| 31 | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| 32 | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| 33 | Daryl McCormack | “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 34 | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| 35 | N.T. Rama Rao Jr. | “RRR” | Variance Films |
| 36 | Ram Charan Teja | “RRR” | Variance Films |
| 37 | Jonathan Majors | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| 38 | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| 39 | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| 40 | Dwayne Johnson | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| Unranked Possible Contenders | |||
| — | Aaron Pierre* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Alexander Skarsgård | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Antonio Banderas | “Official Competition” | IFC Films |
| — | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ben Kingsley | “Dalíland” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Benedict Cumberbatch | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Brad Pitt | “Bullet Train” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Brendan Gleeson* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Brian Cox | “Prisoner’s Daughter” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| — | Casey Affleck | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Channing Tatum | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Chris Evans | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Chris Evans | “Lightyear” | Pixar |
| — | Chris Hemsworth | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Colin Farrell | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Daniel Craig | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Daryl McCormack | “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | David Earl | “Brian and Charles” | Focus Features |
| — | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Dwayne Johnson | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Eddie Redmayne* | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Eden Dambrine | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Elio Germano | “Il Signore Delle Formiche” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Gabrielle LaPelle | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | George Clooney | “Ticket to Paradise” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Géza Röhrig | “The Way of the Wind” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Gregory Mann | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Netflix |
| — | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Harry Styles* | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Idris Elba | “Three Thousand Years of Longing” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jake Gyllenhaal | “Ambulance” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Ji-Min Park | “Return to Seoul” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| — | Joel Edgerton | “The Stranger” | Transmission Films |
| — | Jonathan Majors | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Joshua Boone* | “A Jazzman’s Blues” | Netflix |
| — | Justin Chatwin | “The Walk” | Vertical Entertainment |
| — | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Chevalier” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Lamar Johnson* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Marin Grigore | “R.M.N.” | IFC Films |
| — | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Matthias Schweighöfer | “The Swimmers” | Netflix |
| — | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| — | Micheal Ward* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Michael Banks Repeta | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | N.T. Rama Rao Jr. | “RRR” | Variance Films |
| — | Nicholas Hoult* | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “Butcher’s Crossing” | Saban Films |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| — | Owen Teague | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| — | Pascal Greggory | “One Fine Morning” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| — | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| — | Ram Charan Teja | “RRR” | Variance Films |
| — | Ralph Fiennes | “The Forgiven” | Roadside Attractions |
| — | Ralph Fiennes* | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | RJ Cyler | “Emergency” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Robert Pattinson | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ryan Gosling | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Sam Rockwell | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| — | Sope Dirisu | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Sterling K. Brown | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Steve Coogan* | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Taj Atwal | “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Tim Roth | “Resurrection” | IFC Films |
| — | Timothée Chalamet | “Bones and All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Tom Burke* | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Vincent Lindon | “Both Side of the Blade” | IFC Films |
| — | Wes Studi | “Love Song” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Will Ferrell | “Spirited” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Will Smith | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Zac Efron | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep pe into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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