Oscar Predictions: Best Director – Steven Spielberg Could Tie Martin Scorsese as the Second-Most Nominated Director in History

2023 Oscars best director predictions include Steven Spielberg, Alejandro González Iñárritu, Damien Chazelle, Rian Johnson and Olivia Wilde.

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 15, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Director

WOMEN TALKING, director Sarah Polley, on set, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection©Orion Pictures Corp/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: William Wyler has the most nominations for best director with 12, with Martin Scorsese behind him with three. At the moment, Steven Spielberg is tied with Billy Wilder in the third spot but that could all change this year with “The Fabelmans” getting glowing reviews out of the Toronto Film Festival. With the Universal Pictures film landing solidly with reviews, a race begins to unfold that will include Sarah Polley for “Women Talking” (MGM/UAR), Martin McDonagh for “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight) and Todd Field for “TÁR” (Focus Features). We’ll see if the branch is “cool enough” to recognize the innovative nature of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, better known as “The Daniels” for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24).

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Name	Film	Distributor
1	Steven Spielberg	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
1	A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2	Sarah Polley	“Women Talking”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
2	A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
3	Martin McDonagh	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
3	Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4	Todd Field	“TÁR”	Focus Features
4	Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
5	Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	A24
5	An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
Next in Line
6	Sam Mendes	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
6	“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
7	Joseph Kosinski	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
7	After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him.
8	Florian Zeller	“The Son”	Sony Pictures Classics
8	Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.
9	James Cameron	“Avatar: The Way of Water”	20th Century Studios
9	Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet.
10	Chinonye Chukwu	“Till”	Orion/United Artists Releasing
10	The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11	Ruben Östlund	“Triangle of Sadness”	Neon
12	Gina Prince-Bythewood	“The Woman King”	Sony Pictures
13	Rian Johnson	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”	Netflix
14	Alejandro G. Iñárritu	“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”	Netflix
15	Damien Chazelle	“Babylon”	Paramount Pictures
16	Baz Luhrmann	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
17	Luca Guadgnino	“Bones and All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
18	Darren Aronofsky	“The Whale”	A24
19	Park Chan-wook	“Decision to Leave”	Mubi
20	Lukas Dhont	“Close”	A24
Also In Contention
21	Ryan Coogler	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
22	Noah Baumbach	“White Noise”	Netflix
23	James Gray	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
24	Maria Schrader	“She Said”	Universal Pictures
25	Ali Abbasi	“Holy Spider”	Utopia
26	Marc Forster	“A Man Called Otto”	Sony Pictures
27	Oliver Hermanus	“Living”	Sony Pictures Classics
28	Audrey Diwan	“Happening”	IFC Films
29	Elegance Bratton	“The Inspection”	A24
30	David O. Russell	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
Other Awards Possibilities
31	Santiago Mitre	“Argentina, 1985”	Amazon Studios
32	Ron Howard	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
33	Agnieszka Smoczynska	“The Silent Twins”	Focus Features
34	S.S. Rajamouli	“RRR”	Variance Films
35	George Miller	“Three Thousand Years of Longing”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
36	Agnieszka Smoczynska	“The Silent Twins”	Focus Features
37	Peter Farrelly	“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”	Apple Original Films
38	Michael Grandage	“My Policeman”	Amazon Studios
39	Michael Showalter	“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”	Focus Features
40	Tyler Perry	“A Jazzman’s Blues”	Netflix
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—	David O. Russell	“Amsterdam”	20th Century Studios
—	James Cameron	“Avatar: The Way of Water”	20th Century Studios
—	Kenneth Branagh	“Death on the Nile”	20th Century Studios
—	Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman	“The Bob’s Burgers Movie”	20th Century Studios
—	Alex Garland	“Men”	A24
—	Charlotte Wells	“Aftersun”	A24
—	Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	A24
—	Darren Aronofsky	“The Whale”	A24
—	Dean Fleischer-Camp	“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”	A24
—	Elegance Bratton	“The Inspection”	A24
—	Halina Reijn	“Bodies Bodies Bodies”	A24
—	Kogonada	“After Yang”	A24
—	Lukas Dhont	“Close”	A24
—	Ti West	“X”	A24
—	Lila Neugebauer	“Causeway”	A24/Apple Original Films
—	Carey Williams	“Emergency”	Amazon Studios
—	Lena Dunham	“Catherine, Called Birdy”	Amazon Studios
—	Mariama Diallo	“Master”	Amazon Studios
—	Michael Grandage	“My Policeman”	Amazon Studios
—	Ryan White	“Good Night Oppy”	Amazon Studios
—	Santiago Mitre	“Argentina, 1985”	Amazon Studios
—	Ron Howard	“Thirteen Lives”	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	Antoine Fuqua	“Emancipation”	Apple Original Films
—	Cooper Raiff	“Cha Cha Real Smooth”	Apple Original Films
—	Peggy Holmes	“Luck”	Apple Original Films
—	Peter Farrelly	“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”	Apple Original Films
—	Reginald Hudlin	“Sidney”	Apple Original Films
—	Rodrigo García	“Raymond & Ray”	Apple Original Films
—	Sean Anders, John Morris	“Spirited”	Apple Original Films
—	Frances O’Connor	“Emily”	Bleecker Street
—	Emma Holly Jones	“Mr. Malcolm’s List”	Bleecker Street
—	Scott McGehee, David Siegel	“Montana Story”	Bleecker Street
—	Julie Cohen, Betsy West	“Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down”	Briarcliff Entertainment
—	Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado	“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”	DreamWorks Animation
—	Oleh Malamuzh, Oleksandra Ruban	“Mavka: The Forest Song”	Feelgood Entertainment
—	Agnieszka Smoczynska	“The Silent Twins”	Focus Features
—	Anthony Fabian	“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”	Focus Features
—	B.J. Novak	“Vengeance”	Focus Features
—	James Gray	“Armageddon Time”	Focus Features
—	Jim Archer	“Brian and Charles”	Focus Features
—	Michael Showalter	“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”	Focus Features
—	Robert Eggers	“The Northman”	Focus Features
—	Todd Field	“TÁR”	Focus Features
—	Alex Lockwood	“The End of Medicine”	Gravitas Ventures
—	Stephanie Allynne, Tig Notaro	“Am I OK?”	HBO Max
—	Andrew Semans	“Resurrection”	IFC Films
—	Audrey Diwan	“Happening”	IFC Films
—	Claire Denis	“Both Sides of the Blade”	IFC Films
—	Cristian Mungiu	“R.M.N.”	IFC Films
—	Jeff Baena	“Spin Me Round”	IFC Films
—	Julian Higgins	“God’s Country”	IFC Films
—	Justin Kurzel	“Nitram”	IFC Films
—	Mariano Cohn, Gastón Duprat	“Official Competition”	IFC Films
—	Marie Kreutzer	“Corsage”	IFC Films
—	Stephen Frears	“The Lost King”	IFC Films
—	Jean-Pierre Dardenne, Luc Dardenne	“Tori and Lokita”	Janus Films
—	Jerzy Skolimowski	“EO”	Janus Films and Sideshow
—	Mary Nighy	“Alice, Darling”	Lionsgate
—	Tom Gormican	“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”	Lionsgate
—	Maya Forbes, Wallace Wolodarsky	“The Good House”	Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
—	Felix van Groeningen, Charlotte Vandermeersch	“The Eight Mountains”	M2 Pictures
—	Emelie Mahdavian	“Bitterbrush”	Magnolia Pictures
—	James Morosini	“I Love My Dad”	Magnolia Pictures
—	Lee Jung-jae	“Hunt”	Magnolia Pictures
—	Ryan Coogler	“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”	Marvel Studios
—	Sam Raimi	“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”	Marvel Studios
—	Taika Waititi	“Thor: Love and Thunder”	Marvel Studios
—	Channing Tatum, Reid Carolin	“Dog”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	George Miller	“Three Thousand Years of Longing”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Luca Guadagnino	“Bones and All”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Sarah Polley	“Women Talking”	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	Park Chan-wook	“Decision to Leave”	Mubi
—	David Cronenberg	“Crimes of the Future”	Neon
—	Hirokazu Kore-eda	“Broker”	Neon
—	Laura Poitras	“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”	Neon
—	Ruben Östlund	“Triangle of Sadness”	Neon
—	Alejandro González Iñárritu	“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”	Netflix
—	Andrew Dominik	“Blonde”	Netflix
—	Anthony Russo, Joe Russo	“The Gray Man”	Netflix
—	Carrie Cracknell	“Persuasion”	Netflix
—	Chris Williams	“The Sea Beast”	Netflix
—	Edward Berger	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Netflix
—	Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson	“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”	Netflix
—	Henry Selick	“Wendell and Wild”	Netflix
—	Jeremiah Zagar	“Hustle”	Netflix
—	Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre	“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”	Netflix
—	Margaret Brown	“Descendant”	Netflix
—	Noah Baumbach	“White Noise”	Netflix
—	Rian Johnson	“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”	Netflix
—	Romain Gavras	“Athena”	Netflix
—	Sally El Hosaini	“The Swimmers”	Netflix
—	Scott Cooper	“The Pale Blue Eye”	Netflix
—	Sebastián Lelio	“The Wonder”	Netflix
—	Tobias Lindholm	“The Good Nurse”	Netflix
—	Alice Diop	“Saint Omer”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Amy Redford	“Roost”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Andrea Pallaoro	“Monica”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Mary Harron	“Dalíland”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Benedetta Argentieri	“The Matchmaker”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Bill Pohlad	“Dreamin’ Wild”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Biyi Bandele	“The King’s Horseman”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Catherine Hardwicke	“Prisoner’s Daughter”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Cesc Gay	“Stories Not to Be Told”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Christopher Sharp, Moses Bwayo	“Bobi Wine Ghetto President”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Clement Virgo	“Brother”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Diego Lerman	“El Suplente”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Enrico Ghezzi, Alessandro Gagliardo	“Gli Ultimi Giorni Dell’Umanità”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Evgeny Afineevsky	“Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Francesca Archibugi	“The Hummingbird”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Francesco Carrozzini	“The Hanging Sun”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Frederick Wiseman	“A Couple”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Gianfranco Rosi	“In Viaggio”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Gianni Amelio	“Il Signore Delle Formiche”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Hong Sang-soo	“Walk Up”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Hubert Davis	“Black Ice”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Jafar Panahi	“No Bears”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Jørgen Leth, Andreas Koefoed	“Music for Black Pigeons”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Jung Woo-sung	“A Man of Reason”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Kim Ki-duk	“Call of God”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Kôji Fukada	“Love Life”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Lav Diaz	“When the Waves are Gone”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Lise Akoka, Romane Gueret	“The Worst Ones”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Madeleine Christian Carion	“Driving”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Maryan Touzani	“The Blue Caftan”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Michel Hazanavicius	“Final Cut”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Oliver Stone	“Nuclear”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Paolo Virzì	“Siccitá”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Paul Schrader	“Master Gardener”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Paul Weitz	“Moving On”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Rebecca Zlotowski	“Other People’s Children”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Richard Eyre	“Allelujah”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Robert Connolly	“Blueback”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Roschdy Zem	“Our Ties”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Saim Sadiq	“Joyland”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Sergei Loznitsa	“The Kiev Trial”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Shekhar Kapur	“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Shubham Yogi	“Kacchey Limbu”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Signe Baumane	“My Love Affair with Marriage”	No U.S. distribution
—	Steve James	“A Compassionate Spy”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Susanna Nicchiarelli	“Chiara”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Terrence Malick	“The Way of the Wind”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Ti West	“Pearl”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Vahid Jalilvand	“Beyond the Wall”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Walter Hill	“Dead For a Dollar”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Zachary Wigon	“Sanctuary”	No U.S. Distribution
—	Chinonye Chukwu	“Till”	Orion/United Artists Releasing
—	Damien Chazelle	“Babylon”	Paramount Pictures
—	Joseph Kosinski	“Top Gun: Maverick”	Paramount Pictures
—	Sanaa Lathan	“On the Come Up”	Paramount Pictures
—	Alice Winocour	“Paris Memories”	Pathé
—	Emanuele Crialese	“L’Immensità”	Pathé
—	Gina Gammell, Riley Keough	“War Pony”	Picturehouse Entertainment
—	Angus MacLane	“Lightyear”	Pixar
—	Domee Shi	“Turning Red”	Pixar
—	Mayim Bialik	“As They Made Us”	Quiver
—	John Michael McDonagh	“The Forgiven”	Roadside Attractions
—	John Patton Ford	“Emily the Criminal”	Roadside Attractions
—	Phyllis Nagy	“Call Jane”	Roadside Attractions
—	Gabe Polsky	“Butcher’s Crossing”	Saban Films
—	Mark Mylod	“The Menu”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Martin McDonagh	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Sam Mendes	“Empire of Light”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Stephen Williams	“Chevalier”	Searchlight Pictures
—	Tom George	“See How They Run”	Searchlight Pictures
—	David Leitch	“Bullet Train”	Sony Pictures
—	J.D. Dillard	“Devotion”	Sony Pictures
—	Jessica M. Thompson	“The Invitation”	Sony Pictures
—	Josh Gordon, Will Speck	“Lyle, Lyle Crocodile”	Sony Pictures
—	Kasi Lemmons	“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”	Sony Pictures
—	Marc Forster	“A Man Called Otto”	Sony Pictures
—	Craig Roberts	“The Phantom of the Open”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine	“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Davy Chou	“Return to Seoul”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Florian Zeller	“The Son”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Kathlyn Horan	“The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Lizzie Gottlieb	“Turn Every Page”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Luca Guadagnino	“Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Mia Hansen-Løve	“One Fine Morning”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Oliver Hermanus	“Living”	Sony Pictures Classics
—	Thomas M. Wright	“The Stranger”	Transmission Films
—	Gina Prince-Bythewood	“The Woman King”	TriStar Pictures
—	Baltasar Kormákur	“Beast”	Universal Pictures
—	Jordan Peele	“Nope”	Universal Pictures
—	Kyle Balda	“Minions: The Rise of Gru”	Universal Pictures
—	Maria Schrader	“She Said”	Universal Pictures
—	Michael Bay	“Ambulance”	Universal Pictures
—	Nicholas Stoller	“Bros”	Universal Pictures
—	Ol Parker	“Ticket to Paradise”	Universal Pictures
—	Pierre Perifel	“The Bad Guys”	Universal Pictures
—	Steven Spielberg	“The Fabelmans”	Universal Pictures
—	Ali Abbasi	“Holy Spider”	Utopia
—	S.S. Rajamouli	“RRR”	Variance Films
—	Christopher Winterbauer	“Wyrm”	Vertical Entertainment
—	Daniel Adams	“The Walk”	Vertical Entertainment
—	Don Hall	“Strange World”	Walt Disney Pictures
—	Jared Stern	“DC League of Super Pets”	Warner Bros
—	Jaume Collet-Serra	“Black Adam”	Warner Bros
—	Olivia Wilde	“Don’t Worry Darling”	Warner Bros
—	Baz Luhrmann	“Elvis”	Warner Bros.
—	Matt Reeves	“The Batman”	Warner Bros.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)

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