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Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – Martin McDonagh Angles for His First Screenplay Statuette for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’
2023 Oscars best original screenplay predictions include "Babylon," "Bardo," "Elvis," "Triangle of Sadness," "Till" and "TAR."

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – Martin McDonagh Angles for His First Screenplay Statuette for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 22, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

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CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Martin McDonagh is an Oscar-winner for live action short for “Six Shooter” (2004) but has yet to win a screenplay category despite coming close with “In Bruges” (2008) and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017). Will “The Banshees of Inisherin” bring him his next statuette?

Depends on how well “TÁR” for Todd Field and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert is received by industry voters.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankFilmWriter(s)Distributor
1“The Banshees of Inisherin”Martin McDonaghSearchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2“TÁR”Todd FieldFocus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3“Everything Everywhere All at Once”Daniel Kwan, Daniel ScheinertA24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4“The Fabelmans”Tony Kushner, Steven SpielbergUniversal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3“Triangle of Sadness”Ruben ÖstlundNeon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Next in Line
6“Armageddon Time”James GrayFocus Features
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
7“Babylon”Damien ChazelleParamount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
8“The Inspection”Elegance BrattonA24
Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton.
9“Till”Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael ReillyOrion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
10“Empire of Light”Sam MendesSearchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11“Elvis”Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig PearceWarner Bros.
12“The Woman King”Maria Bello, Dana StevensTriStar Pictures
13“Close”Lukas Dhont, Angelo TijssensA24
14“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González IñárrituNetflix
15“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Cooper RaiffApple Original Films
16“Nanny”Nikyatu JusuAmazon Studios
17“Holy Spider”Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran BahramiUtopia
18“Vengeance”B.J. NovakFocus Features
19“Saint Omer”Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’DiayeNeon/Super
20“RRR”S.S. Rajamouli, V. Vijayendra PrasadVariance Films
Also In Contention
21“Aftersun”Charlotte WellsA24
22“Broker”Hirokazu KoreedaNeon
23“Turning Red”Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah StreicherPixar
24“Bros”Billy Eichner, Nicholas StollerUniversal Pictures
25“The Lost King”Steve Coogan, Jeff PopeIFC Films
26“Decision to Leave”Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong JeongMubi
27“Argentina, 1985”Mariano Llinás, Santiago MitreAmazon Studios
28“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Anthony McCartenSony Pictures
29“The Swimmers”Sally El Hosaini, Jack ThorneNetflix
30“The Menu”Seth Reiss, Will TracySearchlight Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“A Jazzman’s Blues”Tyler PerryNetflix
“Vengeance”B.J. NovakFocus Features
“Saint Omer”Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’DiayeNeon/Super
“Aftersun”Charlotte WellsA24
“Alice, Darling”Alanna FrancisLionsgate
“Am I OK?”Lauren PomerantzHBO Max
“Amsterdam”David O. Russell20th Century Studios
“Argentina, 1985”Mariano Llinás, Santiago MitreAmazon Studios
“Armageddon Time”James GrayFocus Features
“As They Made Us”Mayim BialikQuiver
“Athena”Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj LyNetflix
“Babylon”Damien ChazelleParamount Pictures
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González IñárrituNetflix
“Beyond the Wall”Vahid JalilvandNo U.S. Distribution
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”Sarah DeLappe, Kristen RoupenianA24
“Broker”Hirokazu Kore-edaNeon
“Bros”Billy Eichner, Nicholas StollerUniversal Pictures
“Call Jane”Hayley Schore, Roshan SethiRoadside Attractions
“Causeway”Luke Goebel, Ottessa MoshfeghA24/Apple Original Films
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Cooper RaiffApple Original Films
“Chevalier”Stefani RobinsonSearchlight Pictures
“Close”Lukas Dhont, Angelo TijssensA24
“Corsage”Marie KreutzerIFC Films
“Crimes of the Future”David CronenbergNeon
“Decision to Leave”Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wookMubi
“Dog”Reid Carolin, Brett RodriguezMGM/United Artists Releasing
“Don’t Worry Darling”Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van DykeWarner Bros
“Elvis”Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig PearceWarner Bros.
“Emancipation”Bill CollageApple Original Films
“Emily the Criminal”John Patton FordRoadside Attractions
“Empire of Light”Sam MendesSearchlight Pictures
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”Daniel Kwan, Daniel ScheinertA24
“God’s Country”Julian Higgins, Shaye OgbonnaIFC Films
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Katy BrandSearchlight Pictures
“Holy Spider”Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran BahramiUtopia
“Hustle”Taylor Materne, Will FettersNetflix
“I Love My Dad”James MorosiniMagnolia Pictures
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Anthony McCartenSony Pictures
“Master Gardener”Paul SchraderNo U.S. Distribution
“Monica”Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando TiradoNo U.S. Distribution
“Montana Story”Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike SpreterBleecker Street
“Moving On”Paul WeitzNo U.S. Distribution
“Nitram”To be addedIFC Films
“Nope”Jordan PeeleUniversal Pictures
“One Fine Morning”Mia Hansen-LøveSony Pictures Classics
“R.M.N.”To be addedIFC Films
“Raymond & Ray”To be addedApple Original Films
“Resurrection”Andrew SemansIFC Films
“RRR”Vijayendra Prasad, S.S. RajamouliVariance Films
“TÁR”Todd FieldFocus Features
“The Fabelmans”Tony Kushner, Steven SpielbergUniversal Pictures
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete JonesApple Original Films
“The Inspection”Elegance BrattonA24
“The Listener”Alessandro CamonNo U.S. Distribution
“The Lost King”Steve Coogan, Jeff PopeWarner Bros.
“The Menu”Seth Reiss, Will TracySearchlight Pictures
“The Northman”Robert Eggers, SjónFocus Features
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Tom Gormican, Kevin EttenLionsgate
“The Woman King”Maria Bello, Dana StevensTriStar Pictures
“The Worst Ones”To be addedNo U.S. Distribution
“Thirteen Lives”William Nicholson, Don MacPhersonMGM/Amazon Studios
“Ticket to Paradise”Ol Prker, Daniel PipskiUniversal Pictures
“Till”Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael ReillyOrion/United Artists Releasing
“Tori and Lokita”The Dardenne BrothersJanus Films
“Triangle of Sadness”Ruben ÖstlundNeon
“Turning Red”Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah StreicherPixar
“Wendell & Wild”Clay McLeod Chapman, Jordan Peele, Henry SelickNetflix
“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”Jemima KhanNo U.S. Distribution
“The Swimmers”Sally El Hosaini, Jack ThorneNetflix
“X”To be addedA24

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Lonergan

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep pe into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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