Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – Martin McDonagh Angles for His First Screenplay Statuette for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Martin McDonagh is an Oscar-winner for live action short for “Six Shooter” (2004) but has yet to win a screenplay category despite coming close with “In Bruges” (2008) and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017). Will “The Banshees of Inisherin” bring him his next statuette?
Depends on how well “TÁR” for Todd Field and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert is received by industry voters.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Film | Writer(s) | Distributor |
1 | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Martin McDonagh | Searchlight Pictures |
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
2 | “TÁR” | Todd Field | Focus Features |
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra. | |||
3 | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert | A24 |
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
4 | “The Fabelmans” | Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg | Universal Pictures |
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. | |||
3 | “Triangle of Sadness” | Ruben Östlund | Neon |
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island. | |||
Next in Line | |||
6 | “Armageddon Time” | James Gray | Focus Features |
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream. | |||
7 | “Babylon” | Damien Chazelle | Paramount Pictures |
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters. | |||
8 | “The Inspection” | Elegance Bratton | A24 |
Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton. | |||
9 | “Till” | Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son. | |||
10 | “Empire of Light” | Sam Mendes | Searchlight Pictures |
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s. | |||
Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
11 | “Elvis” | Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce | Warner Bros. |
12 | “The Woman King” | Maria Bello, Dana Stevens | TriStar Pictures |
13 | “Close” | Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens | A24 |
14 | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu | Netflix |
15 | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Cooper Raiff | Apple Original Films |
16 | “Nanny” | Nikyatu Jusu | Amazon Studios |
17 | “Holy Spider” | Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami | Utopia |
18 | “Vengeance” | B.J. Novak | Focus Features |
19 | “Saint Omer” | Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’Diaye | Neon/Super |
20 | “RRR” | S.S. Rajamouli, V. Vijayendra Prasad | Variance Films |
Also In Contention | |||
21 | “Aftersun” | Charlotte Wells | A24 |
22 | “Broker” | Hirokazu Koreeda | Neon |
23 | “Turning Red” | Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah Streicher | Pixar |
24 | “Bros” | Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller | Universal Pictures |
25 | “The Lost King” | Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope | IFC Films |
26 | “Decision to Leave” | Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong Jeong | Mubi |
27 | “Argentina, 1985” | Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre | Amazon Studios |
28 | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Anthony McCarten | Sony Pictures |
29 | “The Swimmers” | Sally El Hosaini, Jack Thorne | Netflix |
30 | “The Menu” | Seth Reiss, Will Tracy | Searchlight Pictures |
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
— | “A Jazzman’s Blues” | Tyler Perry | Netflix |
— | “Vengeance” | B.J. Novak | Focus Features |
— | “Saint Omer” | Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’Diaye | Neon/Super |
— | “Aftersun” | Charlotte Wells | A24 |
— | “Alice, Darling” | Alanna Francis | Lionsgate |
— | “Am I OK?” | Lauren Pomerantz | HBO Max |
— | “Amsterdam” | David O. Russell | 20th Century Studios |
— | “Argentina, 1985” | Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre | Amazon Studios |
— | “Armageddon Time” | James Gray | Focus Features |
— | “As They Made Us” | Mayim Bialik | Quiver |
— | “Athena” | Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj Ly | Netflix |
— | “Babylon” | Damien Chazelle | Paramount Pictures |
— | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu | Netflix |
— | “Beyond the Wall” | Vahid Jalilvand | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Bodies Bodies Bodies” | Sarah DeLappe, Kristen Roupenian | A24 |
— | “Broker” | Hirokazu Kore-eda | Neon |
— | “Bros” | Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller | Universal Pictures |
— | “Call Jane” | Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi | Roadside Attractions |
— | “Causeway” | Luke Goebel, Ottessa Moshfegh | A24/Apple Original Films |
— | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Cooper Raiff | Apple Original Films |
— | “Chevalier” | Stefani Robinson | Searchlight Pictures |
— | “Close” | Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens | A24 |
— | “Corsage” | Marie Kreutzer | IFC Films |
— | “Crimes of the Future” | David Cronenberg | Neon |
— | “Decision to Leave” | Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wook | Mubi |
— | “Dog” | Reid Carolin, Brett Rodriguez | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
— | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke | Warner Bros |
— | “Elvis” | Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce | Warner Bros. |
— | “Emancipation” | Bill Collage | Apple Original Films |
— | “Emily the Criminal” | John Patton Ford | Roadside Attractions |
— | “Empire of Light” | Sam Mendes | Searchlight Pictures |
— | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert | A24 |
— | “God’s Country” | Julian Higgins, Shaye Ogbonna | IFC Films |
— | “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” | Katy Brand | Searchlight Pictures |
— | “Holy Spider” | Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami | Utopia |
— | “Hustle” | Taylor Materne, Will Fetters | Netflix |
— | “I Love My Dad” | James Morosini | Magnolia Pictures |
— | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Anthony McCarten | Sony Pictures |
— | “Master Gardener” | Paul Schrader | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Monica” | Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Montana Story” | Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike Spreter | Bleecker Street |
— | “Moving On” | Paul Weitz | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Nitram” | To be added | IFC Films |
— | “Nope” | Jordan Peele | Universal Pictures |
— | “One Fine Morning” | Mia Hansen-Løve | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “R.M.N.” | To be added | IFC Films |
— | “Raymond & Ray” | To be added | Apple Original Films |
— | “Resurrection” | Andrew Semans | IFC Films |
— | “RRR” | Vijayendra Prasad, S.S. Rajamouli | Variance Films |
— | “TÁR” | Todd Field | Focus Features |
— | “The Fabelmans” | Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg | Universal Pictures |
— | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete Jones | Apple Original Films |
— | “The Inspection” | Elegance Bratton | A24 |
— | “The Listener” | Alessandro Camon | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “The Lost King” | Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope | Warner Bros. |
— | “The Menu” | Seth Reiss, Will Tracy | Searchlight Pictures |
— | “The Northman” | Robert Eggers, Sjón | Focus Features |
— | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Tom Gormican, Kevin Etten | Lionsgate |
— | “The Woman King” | Maria Bello, Dana Stevens | TriStar Pictures |
— | “The Worst Ones” | To be added | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Thirteen Lives” | William Nicholson, Don MacPherson | MGM/Amazon Studios |
— | “Ticket to Paradise” | Ol Prker, Daniel Pipski | Universal Pictures |
— | “Till” | Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
— | “Tori and Lokita” | The Dardenne Brothers | Janus Films |
— | “Triangle of Sadness” | Ruben Östlund | Neon |
— | “Turning Red” | Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah Streicher | Pixar |
— | “Wendell & Wild” | Clay McLeod Chapman, Jordan Peele, Henry Selick | Netflix |
— | “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” | Jemima Khan | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “The Swimmers” | Sally El Hosaini, Jack Thorne | Netflix |
— | “X” | To be added | A24 |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Lonergan
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