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NFL Week 10: Picks and preview

Well, it’s fair to say that Week 9 was full of surprises. None were bigger than the Jets’ win over Buffalo, one that proved that the Jets’ defense is for real, that the Bills need Matt Milano, and that Buffalo can be run on. If anyone was scoffing at New York before, they aren’t now. Justin Fields became the first player in league history with 3+ passing touchdowns and 140+ rushing yards in a game, and his 178 yards on the ground were the most ever in the regular season by a quarterback. The Raiders collapsed, while Jacksonville showed a little character…and then there are the Packers. Detroit was the league’s worst scoring defense coming into their game with Green Bay. The Lions hadn’t held a team to less than 24 all year. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got 9. And Rodgers’ three interceptions were the main reason why. Things have gone from bad to catastrophic in Green Bay. Week 10 brings with it a powerhouse showdown between a smarting Bills team and 7-1 Minnesota, and, well, that’s about it. The rest of the games match teams that are continuing to churn in the middle of the pack, standings-wise. There are intriguing individual team stories to follow, but what this week will mostly serve to do is either start to bring clarity to playoff races or further muddle things.

Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.

NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold

Last Week: 12-0-1 (Not a misprint, folks) (Season: 68-65-3) 

BYE: Cincinnati, New England, New York Jets, Baltimore

 1 of 14

ATLANTA (4-5) AT CAROLINA (2-7) (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Images

TV: NFL NETWORK            LINE: Tampa Bay -2.5

There aren’t any doubters left, right? Or anyone who thinks this is fluky? The Seahawks are objectively good. So is Geno Smith. That was abundantly clear after Smith shook off a Zaven Collins pick-six, and the Seahawks buried the Cardinals by scoring 21 of the next 28 points. Smith is sharp, he has weapons, and Kenneth Walker III runs like a Mack truck. Seattle’s offensive line is solid, and their defense plays fast. What’s not to like? Perhaps there’s still a little magic for Tom Brady and Tampa Bay. Brady was (profanely) happy after the Bucs’ late rally to beat the Rams stopped his longest losing streak in 20 years. Brady took Tampa 60 yards in 6 plays and just 35 seconds to get the win, in the process thrusting his team back into first place and becoming the first player in league history to pass for 100,000 yards, to boot. Still, there are problems for the Bucs. They can’t run the ball well, they play too sloppy, and Brady is more vulnerable than ever to pressure, which he often sees because the offensive line isn’t good. Seattle will make them pay for that sort of play. Geno Smith’s about to have a whole lot of fans in Germany.

Look smart to your friends:

-Smith leads the NFL with 7 games of 2+ touchdown passes, 6 games with a 100+ passer rating, and 4 games with a 75+ completion percentage this season. Pretty good!

-Devin White is going to be busy, and not just because the Seahawks like to throw to their tight ends. The last time the two teams met, he had 12 tackles to go along with 2 forced fumbles.

The pick: Seahawks 26 Buccaneers 21

 3 of 14

NEW ORLEANS (3-6) AT PITTSBURGH (2-6) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Images

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -1.5

New Orleans continues to doggedly stick with Andy Dalton, even as Dalton continues his Jameis Winston-like play. Other than a very clean performance two weeks ago against the Raiders, he has been nothing more than average, and as has been the case for the entirety of his career, if he is pressured, he tends to struggle. The Steelers will almost certainly have last year’s sack champion, T.J. Watt, back for this game. The bye came and went, and Pittsburgh didn’t fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada. It would be a massive understatement to say Steelers fans are unhappy that that is the case. Canada is public enemy number one for Pittsburgh sports fans, who aren’t close to ready to turn their anger on rookie passer Kenny Pickett. The Steelers are dead-last in the league in scoring offense, can’t run the ball, turn it over too much, and seem to run the same 5-10 plays all game. Other than that, everything is great.

Look smart to your friends:

-Chris Olave has been more than worth the first-round pick the Saints used on him. Olave leads all rookies in receptions (43) and receiving yards (618).

-Assuming he is back, expect Watt to produce right away. He has 50 sacks in 40 career home games, including 15 in his past 6. He’s also looking for his seventh-straight home game with a sack.

The pick: Saints 23 Steelers 20

 4 of 14

MINNESOTA (7-1) AT BUFFALO (6-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Robert Deutsch/USSA Today Images

TV: FOX            LINE: Buffalo -3.5

The Vikings just sort of keep chugging along. It’s not particularly pretty some of the time, and it certainly wasn’t against Washington. But, as you may have heard, a win is a win, and Washington’s defense is one of the league’s best when it comes to creating pressure. Kirk Cousins shook off a brief injury to throw a crucial late tying touchdown pass to Dalvin Cook, and then led the game-winning drive where Cook did the heavy lifting. The Bills’ laissez-faire second half against Green Bay didn’t seem like much to worry about, but it turns out Buffalo struggles against the run, and particularly so when Matt Milano doesn’t play. Josh Allen was sloppier than usual, and the Jets’ defensive line took it to Buffalo. New York ran for 174 yards, and 5.1 yards per carry, and erased a 14-3 deficit by holding the Bills to 3 second-half points. My guess is that this loss makes Buffalo better; they’ll have a chance to prove it in a big way right away. However, the severity (or lack thereof) of Allen’s right elbow injury is the cloud looming very large over all of this.

Look smart to your friends:

-Cousins – yes, Cousins – has thrown a touchdown pass in 38 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Am I surprised? Yes. Are you? Don’t lie, of course, you are.

-Only three players in the NFL have 7+ sacks in seven of the last eight seasons: Aaron Donald, Cameron Jordan and…Buffalo’s Von Miller.

The pick: Vikings 26 Bills 21

 5 of 14

DETROIT (2-6) AT CHICAGO (3-6) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Jamie Sabau/USA Today Images

TV: FOX            LINE: Chicago -3

Finally, FINALLY, the Detroit Lions, our beloved, unofficial adopted team of this weekly preview, got themselves a win. Not just any win, either. They took it to Aaron Rodgers, who threw three interceptions, including two in the red zone in the same game for the first time in his career. Pretty good work for a team that came into the game with the league’s worst scoring and total defense. Detroit has only really rolled over once this year against New England, and finally, they were rewarded for their effort. Chicago’s loss to Miami was a loss, yes, but it’s hard not to come away from the game feeling like the Bears are finally building something. Justin Fields became the only player in NFL history with 170+ rushing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns in a single game, set the single-game regular-season rushing record for a quarterback, and beyond that, looks infinitely more confident than he did six weeks ago. There’s still work to do in Chicago, but the Bears really appear headed in the right direction.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jamaal Williams is already having something of a career year. He had 81 yards last week in a winning effort, and he leads the NFC, and is third in the NFL, with a career-high 8 rushing touchdowns this season.

-In last week’s loss to Miami, the Bears became just the second team in the Super Bowl era – along with the 1976 Steelers – to rush for 225+ yards in four straight games.

The pick: Bears 29 Lions 24

 6 of 14

DENVER (3-5) AT TENNESSEE (5-3) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

George Walker IV / USA Today Images

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -2

I suppose the Broncos aren’t dead in the water just yet, although they need to start stacking some wins and in a pretty big hurry. This won’t be an easy test either, even with Denver coming off a bye. Broncos fans had better hope that Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson were able to cook up something special during the bye week and start to get one of the league’s most putrid offenses on track. If they can’t, the discontent will only get greater in the Mile High City. The Titans almost pulled off a small miracle last week against Kansas City. The game was instructive in that it highlighted the brilliance of Derrick Henry while also making clear said brilliance’s limits in the absence of actual quarterback play, and also revealed that Malik Willis really needs to sit for the rest of the year and probably part of next season as well. He still might not have that luxury, as Ryan Tannehill’s status is still up in the air as of this writing.

Look smart to your friends:

-Melvin Gordon has some fumbling problems, yes, but he’s never had issues putting up numbers against the Titans. In three career games against Tennessee, Gordon has 376 scrimmage yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.

-With one more rushing touchdown, Henry will become just the fifth player ever with 10+ rushing touchdowns in five straight seasons.

The pick: Titans 19 Broncos 16

 7 of 14

JACKSONVILLE (3-6) AT KANSAS CITY (6-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Douglas DeFelice/USA Today Images

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -9.5

I’ll concede that, even with the Raiders as an opponent, I thought the Jaguars were cooked once they fell down 17-0. They weren’t stopping Davante Adams, they were playing sloppy football…it just looked like a disaster was unfolding. This is where Doug Pederson being the head coach makes a difference. Jacksonville regrouped, never lost their composure, and clawed their way back in, and it was the Raiders who came up small when it mattered. Yes, the Jags are just 3-6, but this was an important team-building win. Kansas City gutted out a win against the Titans, but if Ryan Tannehill plays and the Titans have even the barest semblance of a passing game, you’d have to wonder if things would have turned out differently. The Chiefs went seven straight possessions without points against Tennessee, and while their offense is still fearsome, it’s clear that they can at least be slowed down, and sometimes stopped altogether, by a disciplined secondary and a good pass rush. If Patrick Mahomes’ legs hadn’t saved the day, Kansas City would have lost to a team employing what amounted to a high school offense. There is still work to do for Andy Reid’s team.

Look smart to your friends:

-Travis Etienne looks like he’s turning into an under-the-radar star (probably a contradiction in terms – sue me) for the Jags. He’s going for his sixth-straight game with 100+ scrimmage yards and fourth in a row with 100+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

-Speaking of highly productive Travises, Travis Kelce tied Rob Gronkowski last week with his 32 nd-career game with 100+ receiving yards. His next such game will put him alone atop the mountain in that category among tight ends.

The pick: Chiefs 33 Jaguars 27

 8 of 14

CLEVELAND (3-5) AT MIAMI (6-3) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Rich Storry/USA Today Images

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -4

I’m not here to tell you that the Browns saved their season with their win over the Bengals in Week 8. That would be jumping the gun in a big way. What they did do was show what they’re capable of when Jacoby Brissett plays clean football. The same Bengals team that humiliated the previously plucky Panthers in Week 9 could do nothing against Cleveland six days prior. Miami will be a difficult task, but the Browns need another win to hang around in the crowded AFC. In games where Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes, the Dolphins are 6-0. In the other three games, they’re winless. Miami looks awfully dangerous as long as Tagovailoa is healthy. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are more or less unstoppable; you might slow one, but not both. Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like he’s going to be a significant upgrade in the Dolphins’ backfield, and if Bradley Chubb can live up to his draft pedigree, Miami’s defense will be good enough. I wouldn’t want to see them in the playoffs, I know that much.

Look smart to your friends:

-Miami’s offensive line is not very good – they’re bad, in fact – and that could mean a big game for Myles Garrett, who is going for his fourth game in a row with a sack, and who has 13 sacks in 9 career games against AFC East opponents.

-How good has Tyreek Hill been this year? His 1,104 receiving yards not only lead the NFL, but they’re also the most by a player in a team’s first 9 games of the season in the Super Bowl era. Imagine if Tagovailoa had played in every game this season.

The pick: Dolphins 28 Browns 26

 9 of 14

HOUSTON (1-6-1) AT NY GIANTS (6-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Douglas DeFelice/USA Today Images

TV: CBS            LINE: New York -4.5

I said earlier that the Bears had a “moral victory” loss against Miami, and watching the Texans battle unbeaten Philadelphia on Thursday, I got a similar feeling, just to a lesser degree. Dameon Pierce is an obvious building block. Houston didn’t get pushed around in the trenches – they averaged 5.3 yards per carry – and while they have numerous needs, they also have five picks – including two firsts and two thirds – in the first three rounds of next year’s draft. New York got to rest up (well, not Xavier McKinney) and ready themselves for the back half of the schedule in a division where 6-2 only gets you within two games of first place. New York needs more from Daniel Jones’ arm in the second half of the season. Eventually, they won’t be able to rely on Jones’ legs, Saquon Barkley’s legs, and a whole lot of defensive tenacity to keep getting wins.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jonathan Owens has been an active, physical part of the Texans’ defense. He led the team with 10 tackles last week, his fifth game this year with 10+ tackles. That’s the most among defensive backs and tied for second-most in the NFL.

-Houston will want to get Pierce going, but the Giants’ defensive line is stout and active, in particular Leonard Williams. Since 2019 he has 39 games with 5+ tackles, fourth-most in the NFL among defensive linemen.

The pick: Giants 24 Texans 20

 10 of 14

INDIANAPOLIS (3-5-1) AT LAS VEGAS (2-6) (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Robert Scheer/IndySt/USA Today Images

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -6

Mirror, mirror, on the wall, which team’s Week 9 performance was worst of all? We have the top two candidates here. Indianapolis was disgraceful against the Patriots. New England sacked Sam Ehlinger nine times, got a pick-six off of him, and held Indy to 121 total yards, which got Frank Reich fired and resulted in Jeff Saturday becoming interim head coach. The Colts’ defense actually was pretty good; New England only got 203 total yards themselves and only scored one touchdown, and on a two-yard drive, to boot. The question now with Indianapolis is: Are they tanking? Indy had some excuses last week for their dog of a game – new starting quarterback, playing on the road against Bill Belichick – not to mention what must have been happening behind the scenes. What about Las Vegas? Here’s a damning stat: From 1960-2021, the Raiders had five blown leads of 17+ points. Through eight games this year, they have three. That’s a horrible reflection on Josh McDaniels, but also on Derek Carr. In the second half of those three losses, Carr and the offense have produced 0, 9 and 0 points. After the loss in Jacksonville? Stick a fork in the Raiders, they’re done.

Look smart to your friends:

-Saturday has no college or pro coaching experience and went 20-16 as the head coach at Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia. Just want to reiterate that.

-Sure, the Raiders stink, but Maxx Crosby has been a bright spot. He has a tackle for loss in 7 of 8 games this season and is tied for the NFL lead with 13 so far this year.

The pick: Raiders 27 Colts 14

 11 of 14

DALLAS (6-2) AT GREEN BAY (3-6) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Lon Horwedel/USA Today Images

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -4.5

Dallas got to relax for a week after pulling away from the Bears in Week 8, and even having to go on the road, it feels like their third-ranked defense might be able to feast. Yeah, I know it’s weird to read that when the Packers are the opponent. Felt weird to write it. The fact of the matter is, based on what we’ve seen from both of these teams all year, Micah Parson and the Cowboys should be dictating terms in this one. Is Aaron Rodgers toast? His reputation makes one wary of saying as much. The eye test tells a different story. Make no mistake; Rodgers is the reason the Packers lost to Detroit. He threw two terrible red zone interceptions and a third bad ball that also got picked. He and others can lay blame on his receivers all they want, but what is readily apparent is that Rodgers is not himself, regardless of what his pass catchers are or aren’t doing. If he can’t score more than 9 points against the Lions, what exactly is he going to do against the Cowboys?

Look smart to your friends:

-It’s pretty clear that Tony Pollard is the best running back on the Cowboys; he’s bidding for his third game in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards after a career-high 147, along with 3 rushing touchdowns, in Week 8.

-Not much nice to say about the Packers, but Aaron Jones could be primed for a big game. He’s topped 125 scrimmage yards and had a rushing touchdown in each of his last two games against Dallas.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Packers 23

 12 of 14

ARIZONA (3-6) AT LA RAMS (3-5) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Michael Chow/USA Today Images

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -1.5

Weird, the Cardinals got off to a great start, ripping off a 9-play, 83-yard touchdown drive on their opening possession against the Seahawks. Their next seven drives netted the following yardage: minus-6, 9, 6, 66 (Kyler Murray fumbled the ball away), 6, minus-12, 4. Folks, say it with me one more time: This team stinks. This offense stinks. It’s terrible, a chore to watch, and Murray isn’t it. I’ll keep saying this until I’m proven wrong. SPOILER ALERT: I won’t be proven wrong. Would you like to play the same game with the Rams? The defending champs uncorked drives of 5, 8, 91, 4, 7, minus-5, 67, minus-1, 31, minus-1, minus-7, and 6 yards. That’s a bad offense, and while the defense is still stout, the overall picture is of a bad football team. Seriously. Look at those drives. The only touchdown was a lightning bolt of a play. The other two drives were the kind of thing the Rams would do in their sleep – and be disappointed about because they ended in field goals – last year. I recommend everyone, including Rams and Cardinals fans, avoid this game at all costs.

Look smart to your friends:

-J.J. Watt has been a monster on the road lately, with 4 sacks, 5 tackles for loss and 4 passes defensed in his last five road games.

-Speaking of no-doubt future Hall of Famers, Aaron Donald has 16 sacks and 23 tackles for loss in 17 career games against Arizona. Is that good?

The pick: Rams 21 Cardinals 16

 13 of 14

LA CHARGERS (5-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (4-4) (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Images

TV: NBC            LINE: San Francisco -7

I think the Chargers are a good football team with a very good quarterback and one of the best all-around weapons in the sport in Austin Ekeler. I also think they’re very lucky that they were playing the Falcons last week, and that a vengeful ghost in Mercedes Benz Stadium decided that Ta’Quon Graham carrying a fumble towards a possible winning field goal was not in the cards, cosmically speaking. Los Angeles will have to be much better against a Niners team that had a week to rest and further integrate Christian McCaffrey into their system. San Francisco smacked the Rams two weeks ago, and other than an anomalous performance against the Chiefs, their defense has been outstanding – number one in the league in total defense, in fact. San Francisco’s remaining schedule isn’t easy, per se, but there are enough wins on it to get them to 9-8. Everyone will have questions about Jimmy Garoppolo until he wins the big one, and rightly so. That said, if San Francisco is healthy, they have all the pieces to get there.

Look smart to your friends:

-Austin Ekeler doesn’t get the publicity of an Alvin Kamara or McCaffrey, but he should. After last week, he has 10 career games with a rushing and receiving touchdown, tied with Kamara and McCaffrey for the most by a player in their first six seasons.

-Deebo Samuel gets plenty of attention, but Brandon Aiyuk has been great on Sunday Night Football, with a touchdown in four of his five career games on Sunday night.

The pick: 49ers 34 Chargers 30

 14 of 14

WASHINGTON (4-5) AT PHILADELPHIA (8-0) (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Geoff Burke/USA Today Images

TV: ESPN            LINE: Philadelphia -10.5

Taylor Heinicke giveth, and Taylor Heinicke taketh away. It looked for all the world like Heinicke would taketh the Commanders to a surprising win against the Vikings, until he decided to giveth away the football late to Harrison Smith, and turn a 17-10 lead into a 17-17 tie in short order. One wretched drive and punt later, and Minnesota was winning the game with a field goal. The Commanders have a solid defense, but that group isn’t good enough to overcome sloppiness from the quarterback. Philadelphia shook off a tough challenge from a game Texans team on the road, on a short week, in prime time. The fact that Philly never blinked, never looked particularly troubled and got it done when the game hit the fourth quarter and things were still close That’s more or less been their M.O. all year, and as a result, they’re 8-0 for the first time in franchise history. Washington’s pass rush should provide a solid test, but the Eagles already dominated the Commanders once this year in the Carson Wentz Bowl, so why would this time be all that different with Heinicke around?

Look smart to your friends:

-Curtis Samuel has come on nicely, particularly since Heinicke took over. He is looking for his fourth-straight game with 75+ scrimmage yards after racking up 81 and a receiving touchdown last week.

-With one more win, Jalen Hurts will surpass Peyton Manning and Dak Prescott for the third-longest winning streak by a starting quarterback under age 25 since 1990.

The pick: Eagles 30 Commanders 20