Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature – 144 Non-Fiction Films Seek Academy Recognition
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 9, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Documentary Feature
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The Academy announced the full list of documentary features hoping to score an Oscar nomination which includes “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” “Bad Axe,” “Fire of Love,” “Sr” and “The Territory.”
In the case of “All the Beauty,” it’s walking into Oscar shortlist voting with two big wins from New York Film Critics and Los Angeles Film Critics, adding to its momentum that was started at the Venice Film Festival, where it won the Golden Lion.
A whopping 144 docs are eligible for consideration, with many yet to fulfill their required qualifying release. Documentaries that have won a qualifying film festival award or have been submitted in the international feature category as its country’s official selection are also eligible for this category.
Films submitted in the documentary feature category may also qualify for other general categories including best picture, although no documentary has been nominated (yet).
The 651 members of the documentary branch will vote to determine the shortlist of nominees. Fifteen films will be announced on Dec. 21, along with the shortlists for makeup and hairstyling, sound, visual effects, original score, original song, international feature, animated short film, documentary short subject and live action short.
The Producers Guild of America will announce its documentary nominees on Monday, Dec. 12.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Film | Director(s) and Producer(s) | Distributor |
1 | “Good Night Oppy” | Ryan White (director), Brandon Carroll, Justin Falvey, Darryl Frank, Matt Goldberg, Jessica Hargrave (producers) | Amazon Studios |
The film follows Opportunity, the Mars Exploration Rover affectionately dubbed Oppy by her creators and scientists at NASA. Oppy was originally expected to live for only 90 days but she ultimately explored Mars for nearly 15 years. | |||
2 | “All That Breathes” | Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers) | HBO Documentary Films / Sideshow |
The darkening backdrop of Delhi’s apocalyptic air and escalating violence, two brothers devote their lives to protect one casualty of the turbulent times: the bird known as the Black Kite. | |||
3 | “Fire of Love” | Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers) | National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon |
Intrepid scientists and lovers Katia and Maurice Krafft died in a volcanic explosion doing the very thing that brought them together: unraveling the mysteries of volcanoes by capturing the most explosive imagery ever recorded. | |||
4 | “Descendant” | Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers) | Netflix |
Follows descendants of the survivors from the Clotilda, the last ship that carried enslaved Africans to the United States, as they reclaim their story. | |||
5 | “Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb” | Lizzie Gottlieb (director, producer), Joanne Nerenberg, Jen Small (producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
Follows the iconic Pulitzer Prize-winning author Robert Caro and his editor, the literary giant Robert Gottlieb, in this chronicle of a unique 50-year professional relationship. | |||
Next in Line | |||
6 | “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” | Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers) | Neon |
It follows the life of artist Nan Goldin and the downfall of the Sackler family, the pharmaceutical dynasty who was greatly responsible for the opioid epidemic’s unfathomable death toll. | |||
7 | “Retrograde” | Matthew Heineman (director), Caitlin McNally (producer) | National Geographic Films |
Tells the story of the last months of the 20-year war in Afghanistan through the intimate relationship between American Green Berets and the Afghan officers they trained. | |||
8 | “Sr.” | Chris Smith (director), Robert Downey Jr., Susan Downey, Emily Barclay Ford, Kevin Ford (producers) | Netflix |
Follow the tender but appropriately irreverent account of the life and career of Robert Downey, Sr., the fearless and visionary American director who set the standard for countercultural comedy in the 1960s and 1960s. | |||
9 | “Bad Axe” | David Siev (director, producer), Jude Harris, Diane-Moy Quon, Katarina Vasquez (producers) | IFC Films |
A real-time portrait of 2020 unfolds as an Asian-American family in Trump’s rural America fights to keep their restaurant and American dream alive in the face of a pandemic, Neo-Nazis, and generational scars from the Killing Fields. | |||
10 | “Navalny” | Daniel Roher (director), Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae (producers) | CNN/Warner Bros. |
Follows the man who survived an assassination attempt by poisoning with a lethal nerve agent in August 2020. During his months-long recovery he makes shocking discoveries about the attempt on his life and decides to return home | |||
Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
11 | “The Territory” | Alex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida | National Geographic |
12 | “Aftershock” | Paula Eiselt, Tonya Lewis Lee (directors) | Hulu/Onyx |
13 | “Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song” | Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine (directors, producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
14 | “Nothing Compares” | Kathryn Ferguson (director), Eleanor Emptage, Michael Mallie (producers) | Showtime |
15 | “Last Flight Home” | Ondi Timoner (director), David Turner (producer) | MTV Documentary Films |
16 | “Is That Black Enough for You?” | Elvis Mitchell (director), Ciara Lacy (producer) | Netflix |
17 | “Moonage Daydream” | Brett Morgen (director, producer) | Neon |
18 | “Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues” | Sacha Jenkins (director, producer), Sara Bernstein, Justin Wilkes, Julie Anderson (producers) | Apple Original Films |
19 | “I Didn’t See You There” | Reid Davenport (director), Keith Wilson (producer) | POV |
20 | “Riotsville, U.S.A.” | Sierra Pettengill (director), Sara Archambault, Jamila Wignot (producers) | Magnolia Pictures |
Also In Contention | |||
21 | “The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile” | Kathlyn Horan (director), Christopher Clements, Julie Goldman, Carolyn Hepburn (producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
22 | “Gabby Giffords; Won’t Back Down” | Julie Cohen, Betsy West (directors), Lisa Erspamer, Sam Jinishian (producers) | Briarcliff Entertainment |
23 | “Sidney” | Derik Murray (director), Oprah Winfrey (producer) | Apple Original Films |
24 | “In Her Hands” | Tamana Ayazi, Marcel Mettelsiefen (directors), Juan Camilo Cruz, Jonathan Schaerf (producers) | Netflix |
25 | “Bitterbrush” | Emelie Mahdavian (director, producer), Su Kim (producer) | Magnolia Pictures |
26 | “Eternal Spring” | Jason Loftus (director, producer), Kevin Koo, Yvan Pinard | Lofty Sky Distribution |
27 | “Let Me Be Me” | Dan Crane, Katie Taber (director), Joe Plummer (producer) | Greenwich Entertainment |
28 | “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” | Evgeny Afineevsky (director, producer), Inna Goncharova, Galyna Sadomtseva-Nabaranchuk, Shahida Tulaganova, Will Znidaric (producers) | Self-Distributed |
29 | “Beba” | Rebecca Huntt (director) | Neon |
30 | “Wildcat” | Trevor Beck Frost, Melissa Lesh (directors), Alysa Nahmias, Joshua Altman (producers) | Amazon Studios |
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
— | “2nd Chance” | Ramin Bahrani (director, producer), Charles Dorfman, Johnny Galvin, Jacob Grodnik, Daniel M. Turcan (producer) | Showtime |
— | “752 Is Not a Number” | To be added | To be added |
— | “A House Made of Splinters” | Simon Lereng Wilmont (director), Monica Hellström (producer) | Madman Entertainment |
— | “A Star Without a Star” | Kirk E. Kelleykahn (director, producer), Darnell W. Tyler, Tracy Wren (producers) | No U.S. Distribution |
— | “Aftershock” | Paula Eiselt, Tonya Lewis Lee (directors) | Hulu/Onyx |
— | “All That Breathes” | Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers) | HBO Documentary Films |
— | “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” | Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers) | Neon |
— | “America Boxed In” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Anonymous Club” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Art & Krimes by Krimes” | Alysa Nahmias (director) | MTV Documentary Films |
— | “At Home Walking” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Bad Axe” | David Siev (director, producer), Jude Harris, Diane-Moy Quon, Katarina Vasquez (producers) | IFC Films |
— | “Battleground” | Cynthia Lowen (director, producer), Rebecca Stern (producer) | Abramorama |
— | “Beba” | Rebecca Huntt (director) | Neon |
— | “Bitterbrush” | Emelie Mahdavian (director, producer), Su Kim (producer) | Magnolia Pictures |
— | “Black Ice” | Hubert Davis (director), Vinay Virmani (producer) | Elevation Pictures |
— | “Black Notebooks – Ronit” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Blue Island” | Tze Woon Chan (director), Peter Yam (producer) | Icarus Films |
— | “Brainwashed: Sex-Camera-Power” | Nina Menkes (director, producer), Dehanza Rogers (producer) | Kino Lorber |
— | “Breaking Bread” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Buried: The 1982 Alpine Meadows Avalanche” | Jared Drake, Steven Siig (directors) | Greenwich Entertainment |
— | “Calendar Girls” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Cat Daddies” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Children of the Mist” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Civil” | Nadia Hallgren (director, producer), Kenya Barris, Roger Ross Williams (producers) | Netflix |
— | “Claydream” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Cow” | Andrea Arnold (director), Kat Mansoor (producer) | IFC Films |
— | “Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Descendant” | Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers) | Netflix |
— | “Disturbed Earth” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Dreaming Walls: Inside the Chelsea Hotel” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Eami” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Eternal Spring” | Jason Loftus (director, producer), Kevin Koo, Yvan Pinard | Self-Distributed |
— | “Exposure” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Fanny: The Right to Rock” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Father” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Fiddler’s Journey to the Big Screen” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Fire of Love” | Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers) | National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon |
— | “Four Winters” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Framing Agnes” | Chase Joynt (director, producer), Morgan M. Page (producer) | Kino Lorber |
— | “Free Chol Soo Lee” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Free Puppies!” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” | Evgeny Afineevsky (director, producer), Inna Goncharova, Galyna Sadomtseva-Nabaranchuk, Shahida Tulaganova, Will Znidaric (producers) | Self-Distributed |
— | “From the Hood to the Holler” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Gabby Giffords; Won’t Back Down” | Julie Cohen, Betsy West (directors), Lisa Erspamer, Sam Jinishian (producers) | Briarcliff Entertainment |
— | “Gamestop: Rise of the Players” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Girl, Taken” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Good Night Oppy” | Ryan White (director), Matt Carroll, Justin Falvey, Darryl Frank, Matt Goldberg, Jessica Hargrave (producers) | Amazon Studios |
— | “Gratitude Revealed” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song” | Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine (directors, producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “Hello, Bookstore” | A.B. Zax (director, producer), Mark Franks, Melissa Nathan, Sydney Flint (producers) | Greenwich Entertainment |
— | “Hidden Letters” | Violet Du Feng (director, producer), Mette Cheng Munthe Kaas, Su Kim, Jean Tsien (producers) | Cargo Film & Releasing |
— | “Hold Your Fire” | To be added | To be added |
— | “How to Survive a Pandemic” | To be added | To be added |
— | “I Am Here” | To be added | To be added |
— | “I Didn’t See You There” | Reid Davenport (director), Keith Wilson (producer) | POV |
— | “I’m Wanita” | To be added | To be added |
— | “In Her Hands” | Tamana Ayazi, Marcel Mettelsiefen (directors), Juan Camilo Cruz, Jonathan Schaerf (producers) | Netflix |
— | “Invisible Demons” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Is That Black Enough for You?” | Elvis Mitchell (director), Ciara Lacy (producer) | Netflix |
— | “Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story” | Frank Marshall, Ryan Suffern (directors, producers), Sean M. Stuart (producer) | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “Katrina Babies” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Keep Stepping” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Killing Me Softly with His Songs” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Las Hostilidades” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Last Flight Home” | Ondi Timoner (director), David Turner (producer) | MTV Documentary Films |
— | “Leave No Trace” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Let Me Be Me” | Dan Crane, Katie Taber (director), Joe Plummer (producer) | Greenwich Entertainment |
— | “Let the Little Light Shine” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Life & Life” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Little Palestine, Diary of a Siege” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Look at Me: XXXtentacion” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Loudmouth” | Josh Alexander (director, producer), Daniel J. Chalfen, Mike Jackson, Kedar Massenburg (producers) | To be added |
— | “Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues” | Sacha Jenkins (director, producer), Sara Bernstein, Justin Wilkes, Julie Anderson (producers) | Apple Original Films |
— | “Loving Highsmith” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Lowndes County and the Road to Black Power” | Geeta Gandbhir, Sam Pollard (directors), Jessica Devaney, Dema Paxton Fofang, Anya Rous (producers) | Greenwich Entertainment |
— | “Master of Light” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Midwives” | Snow Hnin Ei Hlaing (director, producer), Mila Aung-Thwin, Ulla Lehmann, Bob Moore (producers) | POV |
— | “Mija” | Isabel Castro (director, producer), Tabitha Breese, Yesenia Tiahuel (producers) | Walt Disney Pictures |
— | “Moonage Daydream” | Brett Morgen (director, producer) | Neon |
— | “Motherland” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Mr. Landsbergis” | To be added | To be added |
— | “My Old School” | Jono McLeod (director), John Archer, Olivia Lichtenstein (producers) | Magnolia Pictures |
— | “Myanmar Diaries” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Navalny” | Daniel Roher (director), Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae (producers) | CNN/Warner Bros. |
— | “Nelly & Nadine” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Nothing Compares” | Kathryn Ferguson (director), Eleanor Emptage, Michael Mallie (producers) | Showtime |
— | “Nothing Lasts Forever” | Jason Kohn (director, producer), Amanda Branson Gill, Jared Goldman (producers) | Showtime |
— | “Oleg” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Only in Theaters” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Our American Family” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Out of Breath” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Project Iceman” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Punch 9 for Harold Washington” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Retrograde” | Matthew Heineman (director), Caitlin McNally (producer) | National Geographic Films |
— | “Riotsville, U.S.A.” | Sierra Pettengill (director), Sara Archambault, Jamila Wignot (producers) | Magnolia Pictures |
— | “Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams” | Luca Guadgnino (producer), Francesco Melzi d’Eril, Gabriele Moratti (producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “Sansón and Me” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me” | Alek Keshishian (director, producer), Michelle An, Caitlin Daley, Aleen Keshishian, Katherine LeBlonde, Stephanie Meurer, Zack Morgenroth (producers) | Apple Original Films |
— | “Send Me” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Sextortion: The Hidden Pandemic” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Sidney” | Derik Murray (director), Oprah Winfrey (producer) | Apple Original Films |
— | “Sirens” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Souls in Transit” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Sr.” | Chris Smith (director), Robert Downey Jr., Susan Downey, Emily Barclay Ford, Kevin Ford (producers) | Netflix |
— | “Stutz” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Surviving Sex Trafficking” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Tantura” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The American Dream and Other Fairy Tales” | Abigail E. Disney and Kathleen Hughes (directors) | Fork Films |
— | “The Automat” | Lisa Hurwitz (director, producer), Alec Shuldiner (producer) | Self-Distributed |
— | “The Balcony Movie” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Bengali | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Book Keepers” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Camera of Doctor Morris” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Cathedral” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Corridors of Powers” | Dror Moreh (director, producer), Sol Goodman, Estelle Fialon (producers) | Showtime |
— | “The Day the Music Died: The Story of Don McLean’s American Pie” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Eclipse” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Exiles” | Ben Klein, Violet Columbus (directors) | No U.S. distribution |
— | “The Human Trial” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Janes” | Tia Lessin (director), Emma Pildes (producer and director), Daniel Arcana, Jessica Levin (producers) | HBO Documentary Films |
— | “The Last of the Winthrops” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The New Abolitionists” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Princess” | Ed Perkins (director), Jonathan Chinn, Simon Chinn (producers) | HBO |
— | “The Quiet Epidemic” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile” | Christopher Clements, Julie Goldman, Carolyn Hepburn, Kathlyn Horan | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “The Silence of the Mole” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Story Won’t Die” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Territory” | Alex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida (producers) | National Geographic |
— | “The Unredacted (Jihad Rehab)” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Voice of Dust and Ash” | Mandana Biscotti (producer), Frank Coraci, Fuschia Sumner (producers) | Matilda Productions |
— | “The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari” | Rory Kennedy (director, producer), Mark Bailey, Sara Bernstein, Dallas Brennan, Justin Wilkes (producers) | Netflix |
— | “The Will to See” | To be added | To be added |
— | “The Wind Blows the Border” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Three Minutes — A Lengthening” | Bianca Stigter (director), Floor Onrust (producer) | Neon/Super |
— | “Tiger 24” | To be added | To be added |
— | “To the End” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Trenches” | To be added | To be added |
— | “Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb” | Lizzie Gottlieb (director, producer), Joanne Nerenberg, Jen Small (producers) | Sony Pictures Classics |
— | “Users” | To be added | To be added |
— | “We Are Art Through the Eyes of Annalaura” | Annalaura di Luggo (director, producer) | No U.S. distribution |
— | “What We Leave Behind” | Iliana Sosa (director, producer), Emma D. Miller (producer) | ARRAY |
— | “Wildcat” | Trevor Beck Frost, Melissa Lesh (directors), Alysa Nahmias, Joshua Altman (producers) | Amazon Studios |
— | “Young Plato” | To be added | To be added |
— | “¡Viva Maestro!” | To be added | To be added |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: “Summer of Soul” (Onyx/Searchlight Pictures)
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