Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature – New Voting Method Creates Potential Snubs and Surprises

Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature – New Voting Method Creates Potential Snubs and Surprises,2023 Oscars best international feature predictions include "All Quiet on the Western Front," "EO," "Holy Spider," "Return to Seoul" and "Saint Omer."

Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature – New Voting Method Creates Potential Snubs and Surprises

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 15, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best International Feature

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: While the new voting method may potentially throw out some wildcard selections, I’m confident the top 10 will be included among the international feature selections which include — “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany), “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina), “Close” (Belgium), “Corsage” (Austria) “Decision to Leave” (South Korea), “EO” (Poland), “Holy Spider” (Denmark), “Joyland” (Pakistan), “Return to Seoul” (Cambodia) and “Saint Omer” (France).

I also believe the eventual five nominated films will come from that same group, pending shocking inclusions or exclusions.

The films numbered 11-25 are all up for debate, with each having its own merits on why they could or could not be included. Name recognition will mean a lot which is why “Bardo” (Mexico) and “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) are probably safe, while “War Sailor” (Norway) and “Klondike” (Ukraine) have their passionate fans.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Name	Director(s)	Country
1	“Close”	Lukas Dhont	Belgium
1	The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi’s mother. “Close” is a film about friendship and responsibility.
2	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Edward Berger	Germany
2	A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
3	“Holy Spider”	Ali Abbasi	Denmark
3	A journalist descends into the dark underbelly of the Iranian holy city of Mashhad as she investigates the serial killings of sex workers by the so called “Spider Killer”, who believes he is cleansing the streets of sinners.
4	“Saint Omer”	Alice Diop	France
4	Follows Rama, a novelist who attends the trial of Laurence Coly at the Saint-Omer Criminal Court to use her story to write a modern-day adaptation of the ancient myth of Medea, but things don’t go as expected.
5	“Decision to Leave”	Park Chan-wook	South Korea
5	A detective investigating a man’s death in the mountains meets the dead man’s mysterious wife in the course of his dogged sleuthing.
Next in Line
6	“Argentina, 1985”	Santiago Mitre	Argentina
6	A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina’s bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time.
7	“Return to Seoul”	Davy Chou	Cambodia
7	A twenty-five-year-old French woman returns to Korea, the country she was born in before being adopted by a French couple, for the very first time. She decides to track down her biological parents, but her journey takes a surprising turn.
8	“EO”	Jerzy Skolimowski	Poland
8	Follows a donkey who encounters on his journeys good and bad people, experiences joy and pain, exploring a vision of modern Europe through his eyes.
9	“Corsage”	Marie Kreutzer	Austria
9	A fictional account of the later years of Empress Elisabeth of Austria. On Christmas Eve 1877, Elisabeth turns 40 and is officially deemed an old woman and starts trying to maintain her public image, once idolized for her beauty.
10	“Joyland”	Saim Sadiq	Pakistan
10	As the happily patriarchal Rana family craves for the birth of a baby boy, the youngest of the Rana men secretly joins an erotic dance theatre and finds himself falling for a fiercely ambitious trans starlet. Their impossible love story slowly illuminates the entire Rana family’s desire for a sexual rebellion.
Other Top-Tier Contenders (Short List Cut Off)
11	“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”	Alejandro G. Iñárritu	Mexico
12	“The Quiet Girl”	Colm Bairéad	Ireland
13	“War Sailor”	Gunnar Vikene	Norway
14	“Klondike”	Maryna Er Gorbach	Ukraine
15	“Last Film Show”	Pan Nalin	India
Also In Contention
16	“Alcarràs”	Carla Simón	Spain
17	“The Blue Caftan”	Maryam Touzani	Morocco
18	“Utama”	Alejandro Loayza Grisi	Bolivia
19	“Where the Wind Blows”	Philip Yung	Hong Kong
20	“Goddamned Asura”	Lou Yi-an	Taiwan
21	“Mars One”	Gabriel Martins	Brazil
22	“A Piece of Sky”	Michael Koch	Switzerland
23	“Cairo Conspiracy”	Tarik Saleh	Sweden
24	“Eternal Spring”	Jason Loftus	Canada
25	“Nostalgia”	Mario Martone	Italy
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—	“A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On”	Gentian Koçi	Albania
—	“Our Brothers”	Rachid Bouchareb	Algeria
—	“Argentina, 1985”	Santiago Mitre	Argentina
—	“Aurora’s Sunrise”	Inna Sahakyan	Armenia
—	“You Won’t Be Alone”	Goran Stolevski	Australia
—	“Corsage”	Marie Kreutzer	Austria
—	“Creators”	Shamil Aliyev	Azerbaijan
—	“Hawa”	Mejbaur Rahman Sumon	Bangladesh
—	“Close”	Lukas Dhont	Belgium
—	“Utama”	Alejandro Loayza Grisi	Bolivia
—	“A Ballad”	Aida Begić	Bosnia and Herzegovina
—	“Mars One”	Gabriel Martins	Brazil
—	“In the Heart of the Machine”	Martin Makariev	Bulgaria
—	“Return to Seoul”	Davy Chou	Cambodia
—	“The Pianter’s Plantation”	Dingha Young Eystein	Cameroon
—	“Eternal Spring”	Jason Loftus	Canada
—	“Blanquita”	Fernando Guzzoni	Chile
—	“Nice View”	Wen Muye	China
—	“The Kings of the World”	Laura Mora Ortega	Colombia
—	“Domingo and the Mist”	Ariel Escalante	Costa Rica
—	“Safe Place”	Juraj Lerotić	Croatia
—	“Il Boemo”	Petr Václav	Czech Republic
—	“Holy Spider”	Ali Abbasi	Denmark
—	“Bantú Mama”	Ivan Herrera	Dominican Republic
—	“Lo Invisible”	Javier Andrade	Ecuador
—	“Kalev”	Ove Musting	Estonia
—	“Girl Picture”	Alli Haapasalo	Finland
—	“Saint Omer”	Alice Diop	France
—	“A Long Break”	Davit Pirtskhalava	Georgia
—	“All Quiet on the Western Front”	Edward Berger	Germany
—	“Magnetic Fields”	Yorgos Goussis	Greece
—	“The Silence of the Mole”	Anäis Taracena	Guatemala
—	“Where the Wind Blows”	Philip Yung	Hong Kong
—	“Blockade”	Ádám Tõsér	Hungary
—	“Beautiful Beings”	Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson	Iceland
—	“Last Film Show”	Pan Nalin	India
—	“Ngeri-Ngeri Sedap”	Bene Dion Rajagukguk	Indonesia
—	“World War III”	Houman Seyyedi	Iran
—	“The Exam”	Shawkat Amin Korki	Iraq
—	“The Quiet Girl”	Colm Bairéad	Ireland
—	“Cinema Sabaya”	Orit Fouks Rotem	Israel
—	“Nostalgia”	Mario Martone	Italy
—	“Plan 75”	Chie Hayakawa	Japan
—	“Farha”	Darin J. Sallam	Jordan
—	“Life”	Emir Baigazin	Kazakhstan
—	“TeraStorm”	Andrew Kaggia	Kenya
—	“Looking for Venera”	Norika Sefa	Kosovo
—	“Home for Sale”	Taalaibek Kulmendeev	Krygyzstan
—	“January”	Viestur Kairish	Latvia
—	“Memory Box”	Joana Hadjithomas, Khalil Joreige	Lebanon
—	“Pilgrims”	Laurynas Bareiša	Lithuania
—	“Icarus”	Carlo Vogele	Luxembourg
—	“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”	Alejandro G. Iñárritu	Mexico
—	“Carbon”	Ion Borș	Moldova
—	“Harvest Moon”	Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam	Mongolia
—	“The Elegy of Laurei”	Dušan Kasalica	Montenegro
—	“The Blue Caftan”	Maryam Touzani	Morocco
—	“Butterfly on the Windowpane”	Sujit Bidari	Nepal
—	“Narcosis”	Martijn de Jong	Netherlands
—	“Muru”	Tearepa Kahi	New Zealand
—	“The Happiest Man in the World”	Teona Strugar Mitevska	North Macedonia
—	“War Sailor”	Gunnar Vikene	Norway
—	“Joyland”	Saim Sadiq	Pakistan
—	“Mediterranean Fever”	Maha Haj	Palestine
—	“Birthday Boy”	Arturo Montenegro	Panama
—	“Eami”	Paz Encina	Paraguay
—	“Moon Heart”	Aldo Salvini	Peru
—	“On the Job: The Missing 8”	Erik Matti	Philippines
—	“EO”	Jerzy Skolimowski	Poland
—	“Alma Vivia”	Cristèle Alves Meira	Portugal
—	“Immaculate”	Monica Stan, George Chiper	Romania
—	“Raven Song”	Mohamed Al-Salman	Saudi Arabia
—	“Xalé”	Moussa Sene Absa	Senegal
—	“Darkling”	Dušan Milić	Serbia
—	“Ajoomma”	He Shuming	Singapore
—	“Victim”	Michal Blaško	Slovakia
—	“Orchestra”	Matevž Luzar	Slovenia
—	“Decision to Leave”	Park Chan-wook	South Korea
—	“Alcarràs”	Carla Simón	Spain
—	“Boy from Heaven”	Tarik Saleh	Sweden
—	“A Piece of Sky”	Michael Koch	Switzerland
—	“Goddamned Asura”	Lou Yi-an	Taiwan
—	“Tug of War”	Amil Shivji	Tanzania
—	“One for the Road”	Nattawut Poonpiriya	Thailand
—	“Under the Fig Trees”	Erige Sehiri	Tunisia
—	“Kerr”	Tayfun Pirselimoğlu	Turkey
—	“Tembele”	Morris Mugisha	Uganda
—	“Klondike”	Maryna Er Gorbach	Ukraine
—	“Winners”	Hassan Nazer	United Kingdom
—	“The Employer and the Employee”	Manolo Nieto	Uruguay
—	“The Box”	Lorenzo Vigas	Venezuela
—	“578 Magnum”	Lương Đình Dũng	Vietnam

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: “Drive My Car” (Japan) – dir. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi

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