Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – ‘Babylon,‘ ’Elvis‘ and ’Triangle of Sadness' Among the Screenplays Going for the Fifth Spot

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – ‘Babylon,‘ ’Elvis‘ and ’Triangle of Sadness' Among the Screenplays Going for the Fifth Spot,2023 Oscars best original screenplay predictions include "Babylon," "Everything Everywhere All at Once," "The Fabelmans" and "The Woman King."

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – ‘Babylon,‘ ’Elvis‘ and ’Triangle of Sadness’ Among the Screenplays Going for the Fifth Spot

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

TAR, Cate Blanchett, 2022. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The top four movies look locked and loaded for Oscar attention — Searchlight Pictures’ “The Banshees of Inisherin” by Martin McDonagh, Universal’s “The Fabelmans” by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” by the Daniels and Focus Features’ “Tár” by Todd Field.

However, the last spot is between a handful of films. Charlotte Wells’ “Aftersun” and Ruben Östlund’s “Triangle of Sadness” seem to be the most likely to break into it but the love for “Elvis” could bring its four scribes — Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce and Jeremy Doner — in for the ride.

Familiarity could welcome Damien Chazelle back to the fold for “Babylon,” despite mixed reviews and a poor box office.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Shonka Dukureh as Big Mama Thornton in “Elvis”Warner. Bros Pictures

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Film	Writer(s)	Distributor
1	“The Banshees of Inisherin”	Martin McDonagh	Searchlight Pictures
1	Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2	“Tár”	Todd Field	Focus Features
2	Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert	A24
3	An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4	“The Fabelmans”	Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg	Universal Pictures
4	A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
5	“Triangle of Sadness”	Ruben Östlund	Neon
5	A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Next in Line
6	“Aftersun”	Charlotte Wells	A24
6	Sophie reflects on the shared joy and private melancholy of a holiday she took with her father twenty years earlier. Memories real and imagined fill the gaps between as she tries to reconcile the father she knew with the man she didn’t.
7	“Elvis”	Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Doner	Warner Bros.
7	Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
8	“Babylon”	Damien Chazelle	Paramount Pictures
8	A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
9	“Till”	Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly	Orion/United Artists Releasing
9	A young, gay Black man, rejected by his mother and with few options for his future, decides to join the Marines, doing whatever it takes to succeed in a system that would cast him aside.
10	“The Woman King”	Maria Bello, Dana Stevens	TriStar Pictures
10	A historical epic inspired by true events that took place in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11	“The Menu”	Seth Reiss, Will Tracy	Searchlight Pictures
12	“Armageddon Time”	James Gray	Focus Features
13	“Nope”	Jordan Peele	Universal Pictures
13	“The Inspection”	Elegance Bratton	A24
14	“RRR”	S.S. Rajamouli, Vijayendra Prasad	Variance Films
15	“Empire of Light”	Sam Mendes	Searchlight Pictures
17	“Close”	Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens	A24
18	“Decision to Leave”	Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong Jeong	Mubi
19	“Nanny”	Nikyatu Jusu	Amazon Studios
20	“Broker”	Hirokazu Kore-eda	Neon
Also In Contention
21	“Holy Spider”	Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami	Utopia
22	“Cha Cha Real Smooth”	Cooper Raiff	Apple Original Films
23	“Thirteen Lives”	William Nicholson, Don MacPherson	Amazon Studios/MGM
24	“Call Jane”	Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi	Roadside Attractions
25	“Emancipation”	Bill Collage	Apple Original Films
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—	“A Jazzman’s Blues”	Tyler Perry	Netflix
—	“A Love Song”	Max Walker-Silverman	Bleecker Street
—	“Aftersun”	Charlotte Wells	A24
—	“Palm Trees and Power Lines”	Jamie Dack, Audrey Findlay	Momentum Pictures
—	“You Won’t Be Alone”	Goran Stolevski	Focus Features
—	“Alice, Darling”	Alanna Francis	Lionsgate
—	“Am I OK?”	Lauren Pomerantz	HBO Max
—	“Amsterdam”	David O. Russell	20th Century Studios
—	“Argentina, 1985”	Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre	Amazon Studios
—	“Armageddon Time”	James Gray	Focus Features
—	“As They Made Us”	Mayim Bialik	Quiver
—	“Athena”	Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj Ly	Netflix
—	“Babylon”	Damien Chazelle	Paramount Pictures
—	“God’s Creatures”	Shane Crowley, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly	A24
—	“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”	Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu	Netflix
—	“The Eternal Daughter”	Joanna Hogg	A24
—	“Bodies Bodies Bodies”	Sarah DeLappe, Kristen Roupenian	A24
—	“Broker”	Hirokazu Kore-eda	Neon
—	“Bros”	Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller	Universal Pictures
—	“Call Jane”	Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi	Roadside Attractions
—	“Causeway”	Luke Goebel, Ottessa Moshfegh	A24/Apple Original Films
—	“Cha Cha Real Smooth”	Cooper Raiff	Apple Original Films
—	“Close”	Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens	A24
—	“Corsage”	Marie Kreutzer	IFC Films
—	“Crimes of the Future”	David Cronenberg	Neon
—	“Decision to Leave”	Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wook	Mubi
—	“Dog”	Reid Carolin, Brett Rodriguez	MGM/United Artists Releasing
—	“Don’t Worry Darling”	Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke	Warner Bros
—	“Elvis”	Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Doner	Warner Bros.
—	“Emancipation”	William D. Collage	Apple Original Films
—	“Emily the Criminal”	John Patton Ford	Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
—	“Empire of Light”	Sam Mendes	Searchlight Pictures
—	“Everything Everywhere All at Once”	Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert	A24
—	“God’s Country”	Julian Higgins, Shaye Ogbonna	IFC Films
—	“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”	Katy Brand	Searchlight Pictures
—	“Good Night Oppy”	Ryan White, Helen Kearns	Amazon Studios
—	“Holy Spider”	Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami	Utopia
—	“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”	Adamma Ebo	Focus Features
—	“The Outfit”	Graham Moore, Johnathan McClain	Focus Features
—	“Hustle”	Taylor Materne, Will Fetters	Netflix
—	“I Love My Dad”	James Morosini	Magnolia Pictures
—	“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”	Anthony McCLofty Sky Distributionn	Sony Pictures
—	“Master”	Mariama Diallo	Amazon Studios
—	“Montana Story”	Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike Spreter	Bleecker Street
—	“Nanny”	Nikyatu Jusu	Amazon Studios
—	“Nitram”	To be added	IFC Films
—	“Nope”	Jordan Peele	Universal Pictures
—	“One Fine Morning”	Mia Hansen-Løve	Sony Pictures Classics
—	“Piggy”	Carlota Pereda	Magnolia Pictures
—	“Raymond & Ray”	To be added	Apple Original Films
—	“Resurrection”	Andrew Semans	IFC Films
—	“RRR”	Vijayendra Prasad, S.S. Rajamouli	Variance Films
—	“Saint Omer”	Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’Diaye	Neon/Super
—	“See How They Run”	Mark Chappell	A24
—	“Strange World”	Qui Nguyen	Walt Disney Pictures
—	“Tár”	Todd Field	Focus Features
—	“The Fabelmans”	Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg	Universal Pictures
—	“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”	Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete Jones	Apple Original Films
—	“The Inspection”	Elegance Bratton	A24
—	“The Lost King”	Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope	Warner Bros.
—	“The Menu”	Seth Reiss, Will Tracy	Searchlight Pictures
—	“The Northman”	Robert Eggers, Sjón	Focus Features
—	“The Sea Beast”	Chris Williams, Neil Benjamin	Netflix
—	“The Swimmers”	Sally El Hosaini, Jack Thorne	Netflix
—	“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”	Tom Gormican, Kevin Etten	Lionsgate
—	“The Woman King”	Maria Bello, Dana Stevens	TriStar Pictures
—	“Thirteen Lives”	William Nicholson, Don MacPherson	Amazon Studios/MGM
—	“Ticket to Paradise”	Ol Prker, Daniel Pipski	Universal Pictures
—	“Till”	Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly	Orion/United Artists Releasing
—	“Tori and Lokita”	The Dardenne Brothers	Janus Films
—	“Triangle of Sadness”	Ruben Östlund	Neon
—	“Turning Red”	Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah Streicher	Pixar
—	“Vengeance”	B.J. Novak	Focus Features
—	“X”	Ti West	A24

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Lonergan

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