Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Could ‘Glass Onion’ Be the First Sequel Winner Since ‘The Lord of the Rings?’
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Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Could ‘Glass Onion’ Be the First Sequel Winner Since ‘The Lord of the Rings?',2023 Oscars best adapted feature predictions include "Glass Onion," "Living," "Women Talking," "She Said" and "Top Gun: Maverick."
Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Could ‘Glass Onion’ Be the First Sequel Winner Since ‘The Lord of the Rings?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each inpidual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: “Glass Onion” has debuted at no. 1 on the Netflix top 10 charts, solidifying its popularity and success in the Oscar buzz department (even if Ben Shapiro has his own strange thoughts on the subject). Rian Johnson, a former nominee for “Knives Out” (2019) in original screenplay, will likely benefit from a seemingly thinner than usual adapted screenplay field, which has only materialized with two other “slam dunk” entries — “Women Talking” by Sarah Polley and “Living” by Kazuo Ishiguro.
Sequels are not always a given in the Academy, but the Writers Branch tends to be more open to them. If the latest tale of Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig) were nominated, it would be among “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2020), “Logan” (2017) and “Before Midnight” (2013) as the last nominees in the category. If it won, it would be the first since “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) and “The Godfather Part II” (1974), both of which won best picture. But I don’t think anyone is expecting “Glass Onion” to be “the one” in this field of contenders.
“All Quiet on the Western Front” has an easy opportunity to recognize director Edward Berger, one of the writers, if they can’t find room for him in the directing category.
It’s still relatively unclear what to make of “A Man Called Otto” by David Magee, “She Said” by Rebecca Lenkiewicz and “The Whale” by Samuel D. Hunter in this race, which all have pros and cons, in regards to their nominations potential.
But there’s room for a few surprises. “Top Gun: Maverick” could prove its popularity with the Academy by picking up a mention here, even if many think five-person written story is not one of its highlights.
We’ll see if some other big franchise movies like “Avatar: The Way of Water” or “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” have the gas to bring them into the fold, but they seem like long shots (at the moment).
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each inpidual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Film | Writer(s) and source material | Distributor |
| 1 | “Women Talking” | Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews) | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. | |||
| 2 | “Living” | Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni) | Sony Pictures Classics |
| An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s. | |||
| 3 | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson) | Netflix |
| Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case. | |||
| 4 | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque) | Netflix |
| A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I. | |||
| 5 | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.) | Paramount Pictures |
| After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “She Said” | Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey, and the New York Times investigation by Kantor, Twohey and Rebecca Corbett) | Universal Pictures |
| New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation — a story that helped launch the #MeToo movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood. | |||
| 7 | “The Whale” | Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter) | A24 |
| A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption. | |||
| 8 | “A Man Called Otto” | David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman) | Sony Pictures |
| Otto is a grump who’s given up on life following the loss of his wife and wants to end it all. When a young family moves in nearby, he meets his match in quick-witted Marisol, leading to a friendship that will turn his world around. | |||
| 9 | “White Noise” | Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo) | Netflix |
| Dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. | |||
| 10 | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby) | Marvel Studios |
| The people of Wakanda fight to protect their home from intervening world powers as they mourn the death of King T’Challa. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi) | Netflix |
| 12 | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silverman (based on characters created by Cameron) | 20th Century Studios |
| 13 | “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” | Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos) | A24 |
| 14 | “The Good Nurse” | Krysty Wilson-Cairns (based on the book by Charles Graeber) | Netflix |
| 15 | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence) | Netflix |
| 16 | “The Wonder” | Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue) | Netflix |
| 17 | “Bones & All” | David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis) | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| 18 | “Devotion” | Jake Crane, Jonathan A.H. Stewart (based on the book by Adam Makos) | Sony Pictures |
| 19 | “The Silent Twins” | Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace) | Focus Features |
| 20 | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman) | Amazon Studios |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | “After Yang” | Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” from the book “Children of the New World” by Alexander Weinstein) | A24 |
| 22 | “The Son” | Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play by Florian Zeller) | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 23 | “Pearl” | Ti West, Mia Goth (based on characters created by West) | A24 |
| 24 | “My Policeman” | Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts) | Amazon Studios |
| 25 | “Spoiler Alert” | David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello) | Focus Features |
| All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
| — | “A Man Called Otto” | David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman) | Sony Pictures |
| — | “After Yang” | Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” by Alexander Weinstein) | A24 |
| — | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque) | Netflix |
| — | “All the Old Knives” | Olen Steinhauer (based on the book by Steinhauer) | Amazon Studios |
| — | “Allelujah” | Heidi Thomas (based on the play by Alan Bennett) | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | “Ambulance” | Chris Fedak (based on the film “Ambulancen” by Laurits Munch-Petersen and Lara Andreas Pedersen) | Universal Pictures |
| — | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | James Cameron, Josh Friedman (based on characters created by Cameron) | 20th Century Studios |
| — | “Black Adam” | Adam Sztykiel, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani (based on the characters from DC Comics) | Warner Bros |
| — | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby) | Marvel Studios |
| — | “Blonde” | Andrew Dominik (based on the novel by Joyce Carol Oates) | Netflix |
| — | “Bones & All” | David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis) | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | “Both Sides of the Blade” | Christine Angot, Claire Denis (based on the novel by Christine Angot) | IFC Films |
| — | “Breaking” | Abi Damaris Corbin, Kwame Kwei-Armah (based on the article “They Didn’t Have to Kill Him” by Aaron Gell) | Bleecker Street |
| — | “Brian and Charles” | David Earl, Chris Hayward (based on the novel by Jim Archer) | Focus Features |
| — | “Brother” | Clement Virgo (based on the novel by David Chariaridy) | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | “Butcher’s Crossing” | Gabe Polsky, Liam Satre-Meloy (based on the novel by John Williams) | Saban Films |
| — | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman) | Amazon Studios |
| — | “DC League of Superpets” | Jared Stern, John Whittington | Warner Bros. |
| — | “Devotion” | Jake Crane, Jonathan Stewart (based on the book by Adam Makos) | Sony Pictures |
| — | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Michael Waldron (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Steve Ditko) | Marvel Studios |
| — | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Julian Fellowes (based on the television series created by Fellowes) | Focus Features |
| — | “Emergency” | K.D. Dávila | Amazon Studios |
| — | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson) | Netflix |
| — | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi) | Netflix |
| — | “Happening” | Marcia Romano, Audrey Diwan (based on the novel by Annie Ernaux) | IFC Films |
| — | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence) | Netflix |
| — | “Lightyear” | Angus MacLane, Matthew Aldrich, Jason Headley (based on the characters of “Toy Story”) | Pixar |
| — | “Living” | Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni) | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Will Davies (based on the book by Bernard Waber) | Sony Pictures |
| — | “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” | Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos) | A24 |
| — | “Matilda” | Dennis Kelly (based on the book by Roald Dahl and musical book by Kelly) | Netflix |
| — | “Minions: The Rise of Gru” | Matthew Fogel, Brian Lynch (based on characters created the “Despicable Me” franchise) | Universal Pictures |
| — | “Montana Story” | Mike Spreter, Scott McGehee, David Siegel | Bleecker Street |
| — | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Carroll Cartwright, Anthony Fabian, Keith Thompson, Olivia Hetreed (based on the novel by Paul Gallico) | Focus Features |
| — | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Suzanne Allain (based on the novel by Allain) | Bleecker Street |
| — | “My Father’s Dragon” | Meg LeFauve (based on the book by Ruth Stiles Gannett) | Netflix |
| — | “My Policeman” | Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts) | Amazon Studios |
| — | “Persuasion” | Ron Bass, Alice Victoria Winslow (based on the novel by Jane Austen) | Netflix |
| — | “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” | Paul Fisher, Tommy Swerdlow, Tom Wheeler (based on characters from “Shrek” and the fairytale by Giovanni Francesco) | DreamWorks Animation |
| — | “Scream” | James Vanderbilt, Guy Busick (based on characters created by Wes Craven) | Paramount Pictures |
| — | “She Said” | Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey) | Universal Pictures |
| — | “Spoiler Alert” | David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello) | Focus Features |
| — | “Stars at Noon” | Claire Denis, Andrew Litvack, Léa Mysius (based on the novel by Denis Johnson) | A24 |
| — | “Terrifier 2” | Damien Leone (based on characters created by Leone) | Cinedigm |
| — | “The Bad Guys” | Etan Cohen (based on “The Bad Guys” book series by Aaron Blabey) | Universal Pictures |
| — | “The Batman” | Matt Reeves, Peter Craig, (based on the characters created by Bob Kane and Bill Finger) | Warner Bros. |
| — | “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” | To be added | 20th Century Studios |
| — | “The Good House” | Thomas Bezucha, Maya Forbes, Wallace Wolodarsky (based on the novel by Ann Leary) | Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions |
| — | “The Good Nurse” | Krysty Wilson-Cairns (based on the book by Charles Graeber) | Netflix |
| — | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Scott Cooper (based on the novel by Louis Bayard) | Netflix |
| — | “The Phantom of the Open” | Simon Farnaby (based on the book by Scott Murray) | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | “The Silent Twins” | Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace) | Focus Features |
| — | “The Son” | Christopher Hampton (based on the play by Florian Zeller) | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | “The Whale” | Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter) | A24 |
| — | “The Wonder” | Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue) | Netflix |
| — | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Taika Waititi, Jennifer Kaytin Robinson (based on the comics by Stan Lee, Jason Aaron) | Marvel Studios |
| — | “Three Thousand Years of Longing” | George Miller, August Gore (based on “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye” by A.S. Byatt) | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.) | Paramount Pictures |
| — | “Wendell & Wild” | Henry Selick, Jordan Peele (based on the book by Selick and Clay McLeod Chapman) | Netflix |
| — | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Lucy Alibar (based on the novel by Delia Owens) | Sony Pictures |
| — | “White Noise” | Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo) | Netflix |
| — | “Women Talking” | Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews) | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep pe into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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