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Grading the Tanner Jeannot trade: Predators get a haul for slumping winger

It appears NHL general managers are officially in the thick of silly season celebrations.

Timo Meier is off the board. To acquire the Swiss sensation from the San Jose Sharks, the New Jersey Devils gave up — among other assets — a former first-round pick in Shakir Mukhamadullin, another first-round pick in the upcoming 2023 NHL Draft, and a second-rounder that might turn into yet another first in 2024 or 2025.

But the picks didn’t stop flying there. Around the same time we started hearing names included in the Meier trade, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman started making waves about the status of Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot. He also named the Tampa Bay Lightning as a potential suitor.

Well, here we are. Jeannot is, indeed, a member of the Lightning, with Brennan Klak first reporting the complete trade details on Sunday evening. Heading the other way? Five draft picks (including a top-10 protected 2025 first) and 24-year-old defenseman Cal Foote, himself picked in the first round way back in 2017.

Talk about a monster trade. According to Daily Faceoff‘s Frank Seravalli, it stunned multiple GMs around the NHL. “Jaws on the floor” — no kidding.

Multiple NHL GMs are stunned by the return. Like jaws on the floor.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 27, 2023

A deal as consequential as this one deserves its own set of trade grades. Let’s get into it.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Receive:

D Cal Foote, 24 – $850,000 cap hit, 2023 RFA, due $997,500 qualifying offer
2025 first-round pick (top-10 protected)
2024 second-round pick
2023 third-round pick
2023 fourth-round pick
2023 fifth-round pick

That’s nearly a whole draft’s worth of picks heading to Nashville in exchange for a player they didn’t even use one pick to acquire. The Predators signed Jeannot as an undrafted free agent out of the Western Hockey League back in 2018 and let him marinate in their system for years before promoting him to the NHL late in the 2020–21 season. Getting this kind of haul for him is pure gravy.

Jeannot took a major step back in his second full go-round with the Predators (more on that later) and always seemed like he might be the type of player whose value on the trade market exceeds what he provides on the ice. This return does a whole lot to confirm that notion. The Predators now have three picks in both the third and fourth rounds of the 2023 NHL Draft, plus three second-rounders in 2024. That’s a nice little stockpile for incoming GM Barry Trotz.

Indeed, if this is David Poile’s last major transaction as Predators GM, he’s heading out on a high note. While the Preds did just alright getting a 2024 second-round pick for Nino Niederreiter on Saturday, the Jeannot return is akin to the Tampa Bay Lightning handing over a heaping sack of gold coins. It’s as though Poile kept asking Lightning GM Julien BriseBois for just one more piece until he finally heard “no” for an answer … six hours later.

If you tried to run this deal past the AI in NHL 23‘s Franchise Mode, the game would probably revoke your login credentials.

None of this is to say Jeannot isn’t a decent player to boost Tampa’s bid for a fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance. Again, we’ll go plenty into depth in our next section on what exactly he brings. But given where the Predators are as a franchise, with Trotz taking over the helm and new ownership coming in, they were in a pretty good position to move on from Jeannot while still trying to craft a winner around Juuse Saros, Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and the like. For a retooling team, players like Jeannot are more than expendable.

The Predators probably would’ve been just fine doing this deal with just the five picks coming their way. On top of all that, they’re getting a former first-round pick in Foote whose contract status matches Jeannot’s almost exactly. Foote’s name is on the Stanley Cup, although he didn’t actually appear in the playoffs during Tampa’s 2021 championship run. He dressed for 13 playoff games last year but was a healthy scratch for the entirety of the Stanley Cup Final against the Colorado Avalanche.

Barring an unforeseen step forward, Foote projects as a bottom-pairing defenseman on an average NHL team. He should be a regular on the Predators, who really need somebody to take the reins and become a top-four guy for them on the right side. But even if Foote doesn’t represent much of an improvement on the likes of Dante Fabbro and Alexandre Carrier, the Predators won’t have much reason to sweat with five more draft picks in hand.

Grade: A+

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Receive:

LW Tanner Jeannot, 25 – $800,000 cap hit, 2023 RFA w/ arb. rights, due $892,500 qualifying offer

The Bolts pushed in a lot of chips to get Jeannot, who is certainly an intriguing player in his own right. And this is hardly the first time they’ve made a move like this. Would the Lighting have gone the distance had they not acquired Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow in 2020? Do they get back to the dance last year without Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul? Probably not.

Jeannot had a huge rookie year with the Predators in 2021–22, earning legitimate Calder Trophy consideration after scoring 24 goals and 41 points in 81 games (he ultimately finished seventh in voting). But he’s tailed off significantly as a sophomore, collecting just five goals and 14 points through 56 appearances with the Preds before the trade.

Which Jeannot is the real one? The Lightning undoubtedly hope he can regain some of the moxie and goal-scoring prowess he showed as a 24-year-old rookie. But his age is very much a factor in that. Jeannot is an old 25 — he’ll be 26 in May — and followed a highly unusual trajectory leading up to his showstopping entrance into the NHL. He played in the ECHL, AHL, and NHL during the 2020–21 season alone. Before that unique year, however, Jeannot had scored a total of 12 goals and 31 points in 97 career AHL games, including playoffs, at ages 21 and 22. That production doesn’t exactly scream impact NHLer.

Of course, what Jeannot has done since making the jump to the NHL carries much more weight than his path through the minor leagues. He’s big and heavy (6-foot-2, 207 pounds) but also fast. Every general manager in the NHL is constantly on the lookout for players who tick those boxes.

That being said, Jeannot doesn’t shoot the puck a whole lot. Among the 17 forwards with at least 500 minutes played at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons, Jeannot ranks 12th with 6.36 shots per 60 minutes (according to Natural Stat Trick). In that same group, Jeannot places ninth with 1.60 points per 60 and 12th with a 49.26 on-ice expected goals percentage.

Jeannot is actually taking more shots, on average, this season than last. His expected goals percentage is slightly better, but still under 50. Under the hood, he’s still basically the same player he was during his 24-goal season. So, why isn’t he producing?

It’s all about the shooting percentages, man. In all likelihood, Jeannot won’t be a reliable 20-goal scorer going forward. He netted 24 last year on the back of a grossly inflated 19.35 shooting percentage in all situations. This year, that’s down to a paltry 5.75 percent. Jeannot’s real value probably lies somewhere between those two figures.

The real selling point here for the Lightning is Jeannot’s $800,000 cap hit and pending RFA status, perfect for a team with so much salary committed to their big guns. This deal might look very different if BriseBois can get Jeannot locked up on a long-term deal at a manageable AAV, which is already looking like a strong possibility:

Would be surprised if #GoBolts don’t go long-term now with Jeannot. Believe #preds and Jeannot were talking somewhere in the 6 years x $2 mil range.

Nick Paul signed in TBL 7 years x $3.15m ($22.05m). Colton Sissons in NSH was 7 years x $2.86m ($20m). Both bought more UFA years.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 27, 2023

Until then, it’s a lot for the Lightning to give up for a guy with a spotty track record. Jeannot has a lot to prove before he can even be anointed the second coming of Blake Coleman.

If Jeannot goes on a Kontosian heater to help lift the Lightning to a fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance, we’ll relent on this one. For now … seriously, five picks? Five!?

Grade: D