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Why the Jets won the Aaron Rodgers trade
The Jets finally acquired Aaron Rodgers on Monday and they didn’t have to wreck their future.
Per ESPN, New York will send to Green Bay a 2023 first-round pick (No. 13), a 2023 second-round pick (No. 42), a 2023 sixth-round pick (No. 207) and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays this season. In return, the Jets will also get a 2023 first-round pick (No. 15) and a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 170).
New York still will have 10 of its 14 draft picks over the next two seasons, including a first- and second-rounder (43rd overall) this season.
That’s not to say Green Bay got a raw deal.
NFL insider Andrew Brandt laid out all the reasons why the trade was a positive for the Packers.
So let me get this straight: the Packers getA first-round pick swap in 2023A high second-round pick in 2023A likely first-round pick in 2024 (at worst a second)A $60 million financial obligation taken off their handsFor A player that was never going to play for them again.
— Andrew Brandt (@AndrewBrandt) April 24, 2023
But for the Jets, this was a deal they simply had to make. Rodgers made it clear earlier in the offseason that he wanted to play for the franchise. After Zach Wilson failed to launch, New York couldn’t afford to run it back with him as the 2023 starter at quarterback.
The 2024 pick runs the risk of haunting the Jets should they struggle and Rodgers plays over two-thirds of the season. But New York will know well before Rodgers hits that 65% threshold if that pick appears likely to land in the top 10.
In a scenario in which the team combusts, the Jets could sit Rodgers and keep their first-round pick. Rodgers is more likely to keep the team in the playoff conversation until the end of the regular season, which could be crushing for the team if it comes up short. In that case, the 2024 first-round pick headed toward Green Bay would be in the high teens.
The deal looks even better for the Jets in the context of what the Broncos gave up to acquire QB Russell Wilson last offseason. In that trade, Denver got Wilson and pick No. 116 in the 2022 NFL Draft but sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock to Seattle.
In a stacked AFC, acquiring Rodgers won’t make New York the favorite to reach the Super Bowl. (Per Oddschecker, that’s still the Chiefs.) With the Bills and Dolphins in their division, the Jets might not even be the team to beat in the AFC East.
But the trade gives New York a chance, something the organization hasn’t had for far too long. There’s certainly a chance the deal turns sour, but for now, the Jets and their fans should be celebrating.
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