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The Oscar Potential of Barbenheimer Explained

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This piece was written during the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. Without the labor of the writers and actors currently on strike, the movie being covered here wouldn’t exist.

The Barbenheimer phenomenon has taken the moviegoing public by storm. Breaking multiple box office records and receiving stratospheric critical acclaim, the same-day July release and subsequent success of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer has led to a restored faith in the film industry. Since each film has captured the hearts of audiences and critics alike to become modern classics in their own right, their respective studios, Warner Bros. and Universal, are now setting their sights on awards glory.

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer have rock-solid shots at capitalizing on their current trends to go far on Oscar Sunday, but their journeys and final results could end up looking quite different from each other. One film transports audiences into the satirical plastic world of a top-selling Mattel toy while the other is a 3-hour biographical piece that combines elements of a political thriller with blockbuster spectacle. Each movie offers a widely different cinematic viewing expereince and appeals to a different demographic, yet that hasn’t stopped moviegoers of all kinds from taking on the Barbenheimer double feature in theaters. To say the least, it would be foolish to underestimate how the cultural dominance of Barbenheimer pushes both films forward in the upcoming Oscar race. 

If there’s one thing that Barbie and Oppenheimer have in common, it’s their incredibly stacked cast ensembles. Greta Gerwig leaves her stamp on the big-budget studio comedy with the talents of Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, America Ferrera, Will Ferrell, Issa Rae, Kate McKinnon, Emma Mackey, Alexandra Shipp, Hari Nef, Dua Lipa, Simu Liu, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Ncuti Gatwa, Scott Evans, Michael Cera, and Helen Mirren at her disposal. Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan balances his own juggling act with Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Matt Damn, Josh Hartnett, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, Benny Safdie, Dane DeHaan, Alden Ehrenreich, Matthew Modine, Jack Quaid, Josh peck, Alex Wolff, Devon Bostick, and Gary Oldman.

With the stage set, it’s time to dive into the individual Oscar prospects of Barbenheimer. As it currently stands, there is some crossover Oscar potential between the two in certain major categories, like Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor. At the same time, Barbie and Oppenheimer are looking to be leading the races in other sections respectively. What do the odds for a Barbenheimer sweep look like for the 96th Academy Awards? And, more importantly, how do other notable players like Dune: Part Two, Maestro, Killers of the Flower Moon, and The Holdovers affect these chances? It’s time to find out.

OPPENHEIMER

Best Picture

As a timely epic, Oppenheimer is one of the top frontrunners for a Best Picture nomination. Christopher Nolan’s latest is not only being hailed across the board as one of the best of the year but one of the best of the decade thus far.

Oppenheimer is also a box office success in its own right, riding a narrative of showing that adult-oriented films can still make a financial impact at the cinema. In fact, it may be such a strong frontrunner that its status could be its greatest weakness. Like we’ve seen in the past, films that are widely seen as frontrunners in the middle of the year rarely win. Oppenheimer could be considered cold and without an upbeat ending as well. It leaves you thinking rather than feeling great, which might not resonate as strongly with all Oscar voters.

While these are all traits that make for great filmmaking, in past years it’s resulted in blows that add to the frontrunner fatigue. Just look at The Power of the Dog losing to CODA or Roma losing to Green Book. Oppenheimer is locked in for a nomination by all means. However, if it hopes to maintain the momentum to win, its best bet is that voters become distracted by other splashy releases for long enough that Nolan’s film can once again be viewed as a fresh contender that can take the crown.

Best Director

Out of all the categories in play, this is likely the one that is seen as the most deserving. Christopher Nolan knocks it out of the park in what is unanimously being declared his most mature directorial effort. Formally flashy, yet restrained and emotional, it’s the perfect combination of style and substance. Nolan is quite overdue, and while that alone doesn’t result in awards (just look at Steven Spielberg and the Daniels), barring a surprise contender or Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, he’s firmly at the front of the pack. In a category that rewards formal innovation and artistry above legacy or anything else, even if Oppenheimer fails to win Best Picture, it’s the likely frontrunner here.

Best Actor

Delivering career-best work and with immense industry respect, Cillian Murphy has a strong chance of success as the on-screen face of an all-encompassing awards contender. Even though his nuanced interpretation of famed theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer is sure to nab a nomination ahead of other top contenders like Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Murphy’s subdued nature might face an uphill battle to win against “showier” contenders like Bradley Cooper (Maestro) and Colman Domingo (Rustin), not to mention being overshadowed by another face in the Oppenheimer ensemble…

Best Supporting Actor

In the Supporting Actor category, Robert Downey Jr. leads the way with his own career-best performance as Lewis Strauss that has been receiving universal praise. Arguably the current frontrunner in the race, he’ll face a tough battle from other contenders (including Ryan Gosling and Robert De Niro) yet still seems poised to take the lead. Free from his blockbuster shackles and tapping into the talent that has resulted in two previous Academy Award nominations, his third one could result in his first win.

Best Supporting Actress

In her role as Kitty Oppenheimer, Emily Blunt takes a backseat to a film largely centered around Murphy’s J. Robert Oppenheimer (and his conflict with Downey Jr’s Lewis Strauss). Due to her limited screen time and a slew of other promising contenders, it’s unlikely that she’ll be able to muster up a winning campaign here. However, if Oppenheimer becomes the awards juggernaut it looks to grow into, expect her fiery turnout where she makes the best of the scenes she’s given to come along for the awards ride.

Best Adapted Screenplay

With the primary framing device in Oppenheimer being two dense legal procedures, Nolan’s script holds much potential to stand out in this category. Perhaps more than any of his previous works, Oppenheimer overflows with quick-moving, tense exchanges of dialogue. Even when the jaw-dropping spectacle is stripped from the final act to focus on the legal proceedings in the aftermath of building the atomic bomb, Oppenheimer shines due to its masterful exchanges, twists, and turns that stand comfortably alongside the greatest courtroom dramas. Due to this, Nolan’s screenplay should be considered the current frontrunner in the category, although Killers of the Flower Moon and a dark horse in Barbie could prove to make for strong competition due to the Academy’s affinity to reward topical films in this category above all else.

Below the Line Categories

On top of the previously mentioned categories, Oppenheimer has a solid chance at staging a clean nomination sweep of all the craft categories, including (but not limited to) Sound, Editing, Score, VFX, Production Design, Cinematography, and Hair & Makeup. Yet, how hard it’ll be to win any may ultimately be determined by the fate of Dune: Part Two. If Denis Villeneuve’s blockbuster sequel is delayed into 2024 due to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike, expect Oppenheimer to prevail in a majority of the below-the-line categories. If not, we’ll be witnessing one of the most interesting below-the-line duels in recent Oscar history.

Which categories does Oppenheimer have the best chance at prevailing in? Ludwig Göransson’s epic, sweeping operatic original score that infuses experimental elements amidst powerful leitmotifs is being rightfully hailed as his strongest achievement as a composer thus far. Similarly, Jennifer Lame’s work in the edit bay is amongst the best of her career, taking a sprawling narrative and cutting it into a kinetic symphony that flies by. The stellar sound, while notable from beginning to end, takes center stage in two pivotal sequences that will make an impact when it comes to the final nominee bake-off. Cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema‘s awe-inspiring IMAX visuals should not be underestimated as well.

Current Nomination Range Forecast: 9-13

Best PictureBest DirectorBest ActorBest Supporting ActorBest Supporting ActressBest Adapted ScreenplayBest ScoreBest EditingBest SoundBest CinematographyBest Production DesignBest Hair & MakeupBest VFX

BARBIE

Best Picture

Overall, much of Barbie’s awards success may be determined by whether or not the ongoing SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes force Warner Bros. to delay Dune: Part Two and The Color Purple, two heavy-hitters also expected to be major awards players for the studio. Although many signs point to Greta Gerwig’s Barbie holding the potential to make a large splash across multiple categories. Why? It’s emotionally powerful, yet has an innate “feel good” quality to it, akin to recent awards juggernauts like Everything Everywhere All at Once and CODA. Additionally, it’s shaping up to be a watershed moment for feminist representation on the big screen, breaking box office records and helping anoint Gerwig as a household name. These qualities and more could lead to it becoming the type of feel-good dark horse that comes from behind to take the crown, or at least make a large impact on Oscar night.

Best Director

As the creative face of the film’s success, depending on Warner Bros.’ priorities, Greta Gerwig could find her name being called on nomination morning in multiple categories. It may be tough for her to break into the Beat Director lineup due to the director’s branch hesitance to reward blockbuster projects regardless if they perform well in other categories (just look at the lack of nominations for Joseph Kosinski, James Cameron, Denis Villeneuve, and even Christopher Nolan for Inception in 2010). However, if the year begins to thin out, Academy voters might find it difficult to deny Gerwig’s road to groundbreaking success and nominate her. That being said, the most likely category for her to be rewarded in is…

Best Adapted Screenplay

Unlike Greta Gerwig’s fate in the Best Director category, the question for Barbie in the Best Adapted Screenplay category isn’t whether her and Noah Baumbach’s script can be nominated, but whether it can win. Currently, we would still expect Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon to prevail here. Though if Barbie taps into the underdog buzz and starts to follow a path similar to CODA overtaking The Power of the Dog, Adapted Screenplay could be the category it clinches in the end. Additionally, with in-studio talks of switching categorizations to compete in a thinner Original Screenplay lineup, a clear path could be found to reward the two indie darlings for their largest project yet.

Best Supporting Actor

As one of the most prominent talking points of Barbie, Ryan Gosling’s Ken has been labeled as the standout comedic role of the year. While many could think Gosling’s overblown, hyper-satirical take on Ken could result in voters not taking him seriously, a solid track record of breakout comedic supporting performances tells a different story. Expect Gosling to follow in the footsteps of nominees like Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), and Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder) to cement himself in the Oscar lineup. If Barbie ends up playing stronger than expected, he may be able to give Downey Jr. or De Niro a run for their money to end in a nail-biter of a category.

Below the Line Categories

Below the line, Barbie may not have the sweeping firepower found in Oppenheimer’s prospects, but it does hold a strong case in multiple categories. The highly publicized creation of a stylish, otherworldly Barbie Land will almost certainly land a Production Design nod and puts the movie in a solid position to win the category. Likewise, the film’s costumes, on par with the bombastic outfits seen on the titular dolls being sold, could result in Barbie leading the Costume Design category. In Original Song, the question might not be “if” it can receive a nomination, but which song? Previous winner Bille Eilish’s “What Was I Made For” carries the emotional climax of the film and brought many theaters to tears, but Ryan Gosling’s performance of “I’m Just Ken” has turned into a viral phenomenon that could piggyback on Gosling’s Supporting Actor nomination.

The Actress/Supporting Actress Question

Two major categories that Barbie could rise in are those of Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Currently, both Margot Robbie and America Ferrera face an uphill battle with their respective nominations, so they shouldn’t be expected to surprise here. However, with Robbie as the face of the picture and Ferrera delivering the passionate, cathartic monologue that resulted in the most cheers and claps during movie theater screenings, they could find themselves in a nomination spot should their categories thin out.

Current Nomination Range Forecast: 4-9

Best PictureBest DirectorBest Supporting ActorBest Adapted ScreenplayBest Original SongBest Costume DesignBest Production DesignBest Hair & Makeup

Follow Awards Editor Diego Andaluz on Twitter: @thediegoandaluz