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Feinberg Forecast: Updated Projections on Eve of Nomination Voting

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Frontrunners
Succession (HBO)
Squid Game (Netflix)
This Is Us (NBC)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Ozark (Netflix)
Severance (Apple)
Yellowstone (Paramount)

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Major Threats
Euphoria (HBO)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Winning Time (HBO)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
Loki (Disney+)

Possibilities
The Morning Show (Apple)
Pachinko (Apple)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
Tokyo Vice (HBO Max)
The Man Who Fell to Earth (Showtime)

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Frontrunners
Ted Lasso (Apple)
Hacks (HBO Max)
Barry (HBO)
Atlanta (FX)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Major Threats
Russian Doll (Netflix)
The Great (Hulu)
Black-ish (ABC)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
The Afterparty (Apple)

Possibilities
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Insecure (HBO)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Better Things (FX)
The Chair (Netflix)

BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

Frontrunners
The White Lotus (HBO)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Staircase (HBO Max)
Maid (Netflix)

Major Threats
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)
1883 (Paramount+)
Pam and Tommy (Hulu)
WeCrashed (Apple)
Gaslit (Starz)
Station Eleven (HBO Max)
A Very British Scandal (Amazon)

Possibilities
Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
We Own This City (HBO)
The Offer (Paramount+)
The Girl from Plainville (Hulu)
Candy (Hulu)
The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Apple)
Moon Knight (Disney+)
Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Frontrunners
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)

Major Threats
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
John C. Reilly (Winning Time)
Quincy Isaiah (Winning Time)
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
Justin Hartley (This Is Us)

Possibilities
Tom Hiddleston (Loki) — podcast
Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton)
Lee Min-Ho (Pachinko)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — podcast
Josh Brolin (Outer Range)
Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice)

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Frontrunners
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)
Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone)

Major Threats
Britt Lower (Severance)
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) — podcast
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
Elisabeth Moss (Shining Girls) — podcast
Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)

Possibilities
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Simone Ashley (Bridgerton)
Minha Kim (Pachinko)
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) — podcast
Katja Herbers (Evil)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses)
Nicole Kidman (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Frontrunners
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast

Major Threats
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
Adrien Brody (Winning Time)
Cole Hauser (Yellowstone)
Luke Grimes (Yellowstone)
Wes Bentley (Yellowstone)
Gil Birmingham (Yellowstone)

Possibilities
Eric Dane (Euphoria)
Jacob Elordi (Euphoria)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Steve Carell (The Morning Show) — podcast
Owen Wilson (Loki)
Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice)
Mandy Patinkin (The Good Fight)
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) — podcast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Frontrunners
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) — podcast
J. Cameron Smith (Succession)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Sadie Sink (Stranger Things)
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)

Major Threats
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)
Maude Apatow (Euphoria)
Hunter Schafer (Euphoria)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
Kim Joo-ryung (Squid Game)
Lisa Emery (Ozark)

Possibilities
Yuh-Jung Youn (Pachinko)
Kelsey Asbille (Yellowstone)
Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show)
Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
Sally Field (Winning Time) — podcast
Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve)
Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Frontrunners
Bill Hader (Barry)
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Major Threats
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast
Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

Possibilities
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)
Sam Richardson (The Afterparty)
Jake Johnson (Minx)
Dave Burd (Dave)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Frontrunners
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Major Threats
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Sandra Oh (The Chair) — podcast
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast

Possibilities
Sarah Lancashire (Julia)
Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)
Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
Tiffany Haddish (The Afterparty)
Rose Byrne (Physical)
Maya Erskine (Pen15)
Anna Konkle (Pen15)
Lily Collins (Emily in Paris) — podcast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Frontrunners
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)

Major Threats
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
LaKeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows)
Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live)

Possibilities
David Hyde Pierce (Julia)
Stephen Root (Barry)
Ben Schwartz (The Afterparty)
Ike Barinholtz (The Afterparty)
Charlie Barnett (Russian Doll)
Taika Waititi (Our Flag Means Death)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Jay Duplass (The Chair)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Frontrunners
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)

Major Threats
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Meg Stalter (Hacks)
Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)

Possibilities
Amy Ryan (Only Murders in the Building)
Molly Shannon (The Other Two)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary)
Zoe Chao (The Afterparty)
Ilana Glazer (The Afterparty)
Holland Taylor (The Chair)

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Frontrunners
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)
Jared Leto (WeCrashed) — podcast

Major Threats
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Sam Elliott (1883) — podcast
Sean Penn (Gaslit)
Ben Foster (The Survivor)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey) — podcast

Possibilities
Paul Bettany (A Very British Scandal)
Jon Bernthal (We Own This City)
Miles Teller (The Offer) — podcast
Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)
Oscar Isaac (Moon Knight) — podcast

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Frontrunners
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Julia Roberts (Gaslit) — podcast
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast

Major Threats
Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed)
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Isabel May (1883) — podcast
Claire Foy (A Very British Scandal) — podcast
Elle Fanning (The Girl from Plainville) — podcast

Possibilities
Mackenzie Davis (Station Eleven)
Beanie Feldstein (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) — podcast
Jessica Biel (Candy) — podcast
Emmy Rossum (Angelyne)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Frontrunners
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)
Naveen Andrews (The Dropout)
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)

Major Threats
Tim McGraw (1883)
Matthew Goode (The Offer)
Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Nick Robinson (Maid)
Wyatt Russell (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Staircase)

Possibilities
Arian Moayed (Inventing Anna)
Anders Holm (Inventing Anna)
Dan Stevens (Gaslit)
Shea Whigham (Gaslit)
Colton Ryan (The Girl from Plainville)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Frontrunners
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Andie MacDowell (Maid)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Toni Collette (The Staircase)
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)

Major Threats
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Faith Hill (1883)
Betty Gilpin (Gaslit)
Anika Noni Rose (Maid)
Rosario Dawson (Dopesick)
Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
Anna Chlumsky (Inventing Anna)
Dominique Fishback (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey)

Possibilities
Laurie Metcalf (The Dropout)
America Ferrera (WeCrashed)
Juno Temple (The Offer)
Chloe Sevigny (The Girl from Plainville)
Vicky Krieps (The Survivor)
Melanie Lynskey (Candy)
Edie Falco (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Margo Martindale (Impeachment: American Crime Story)

BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES

Frontrunners
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
jeen-yuhs (Netflix)
We Need to Talk About Cosby (Showtime)
The Andy Warhol Diaries (Netflix)
The New York Times Presents: Controlling Britney Spears (FX)

Major Threats
Music Box (HBO) — podcast (Bill Simmons)
Catch and Kill: The Podcast Tapes (HBO)
Not So Pretty (HBO Max)
Welcome to Earth (Nat Geo)
McCartney 3, 2, 1 (Hulu)
Our Great National Parks (Netflix)

Possibilities
They Call Me Magic (Apple)
Sketchbook (Disney+)
The Big Conn (Apple)
NYC Epicenters 9/11-2021 1/2 (HBO)
The Way Down: God, Greed and the Cult of Gwen Shamblin (HBO Max)
The Invisible Pilot (HBO)

BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL

Frontrunners
George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO) — podcast (Judd Apatow)
We Feed People (Nat Geo) — podcast (José Andrés)
Lucy and Desi (Amazon)
Downfall (Netflix)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)

Major Threats
Wolfgang (Disney+)
Insecure: The End (HBO)
Sheryl (Showtime)
What Happened, Brittany Murphy? (HBO Max)
Nuclear Family (HBO)
A Man Named Scott (Amazon)
Gaming Wall St. (HBO Max)
Polar Bear (Disney+)

Possibilities
14 Peaks (Netflix)
Murdered and Missing in Montana (HBO)
The Super Bob Einstein Film (HBO)
Beanie Mania (HBO Max)
9/11: Inside the President’s War Room (Apple)
Tony Hawk: Until the Wheels Fall Off (HBO)
Olivia Rodrigo: Driving Home 2 U (Disney+)
Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles (Disney+)